Key points — 5
- № 01Tonight's pitching matchup pits Atlanta's Grant Holmes against Cincinnati's Chris Paddack at Great American Ball Park. Holmes carries a 3.78 ERA across 52.3 innings, while Paddack has scuffled badly to a 6.86 ERA over 8 starts with a bloated 1.67 WHIP.
- № 02Both starters carry warning signs under the hood. Holmes's 3.78 ERA is propped up by a 4.88 FIP and a 4.18 xERA, the peripherals suggest he's been somewhat fortunate. Paddack's 6.86 ERA actually overstates his bad luck modestly, with a 4.33 FIP and 4.32 xERA hinting at some positive regression, though his form score of -37 reflects how poorly he's thrown.
- № 03The ballpark is a hitter's haven. Great American carries a run factor of 1.06 and an inflated home run factor of 1.24, 1.27 for lefty bats. That matters with Atlanta's lefty power: Matt Olson sits at a .930 OPS vs righties and Michael Harris II at .899, both against the right-handed Paddack.
- № 04Yet both offenses are stumbling. Atlanta's 7-day form score sits at a dismal -80 with just 2.4 runs per game over the window, while Cincinnati grades at -16 scoring 4.6. Atlanta's bats, despite a 3rd-ranked seasonal OPS, have gone cold.
- № 05Bullpen edges tilt Atlanta. Cincinnati runs an unsettled ninth-inning role, Tony Santillan tops the leverage chart with just 2 saves and a 5.57 ERA, hardly a lockdown option. Atlanta's closer Raisel Iglesias is fresh with a sparkling 1.08 ERA, backed by Robert Suarez at 0.77.