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Hockey · NHL · Loss

Buffalo Sabres vs Montréal Canadiens

By skeg·bets analysis desk · · Updated

Final result

Loss

Pick: Montréal Canadiens ML · -138

Key points

  • 01

    Montreal dominated Game 3 with a 6-2 victory, securing a 2-1 series lead with 13 players collecting points

  • 02

    The Bell Centre is hosting Round 2 playoff games at full capacity for the first time since 2015, providing a tangible home-ice advantage

  • 03

    Noah Dobson returned from injury and is expected to increase his minutes toward his regular-season average of 22:29, strengthening Montreal's defensive depth

  • 04

    Buffalo's fourth line remains depleted with Sam Carrick playing just 6:04 in his return and Noah Ostlund unavailable due to lower-body injury

  • 05

    Regular-season head-to-head was evenly matched with both teams winning twice and scoring 13 goals each, but playoff Montreal appears to have solved their approach

Analysis

Montreal and Buffalo split the regular season series in a coin-flip matchup, each team winning twice with identical 13 goals scored. However, the Canadiens' dominant 6-2 Game 3 victory signals a shift in the series dynamic. Montreal's four-line depth was on full display, with 13 players registering points—a comprehensive team performance rather than a fluky scoreline. The return of defenseman Noah Dobson from an upper-body injury strengthens Montreal's top-four depth, particularly in defending Buffalo's Thompson line. Meanwhile, Buffalo's fourth line remains a liability, with Sam Carrick returning to action for just 6:04 and Noah Ostlund still unavailable. The Bell Centre's full-capacity environment represents a tangible advantage, hosting Round 2 playoff games at maximum capacity for the first time since 2015. Montreal's power play is clicking after exploiting Buffalo's vulnerable penalty kill, while the Habs' goaltender Dobeš appears sharper than his counterpart. Buffalo's elite talent—Thompson, Dahlin, Tuch—won't disappear, but Montreal's complete roster depth, home-ice momentum, and defensive anchorage edge the Canadiens as the more balanced team in this spot.

Conclusion

Montreal is the more complete team with superior depth, home-ice advantage at a roaring Bell Centre, and the return of their defensive anchor in Dobson. Buffalo's patched-together fourth line and vulnerable penalty kill compound their disadvantage against a Habs squad that answered recent offensive concerns emphatically in Game 3. At -138, Montreal should be favored closer to -160 in this spot, making the Canadiens moneyline the cleanest edge in a series where Montreal now controls the narrative.

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