№ 01Rhett Lowder carries a 5.01 ERA across 41.3 innings, and his ERA in the most recent two starts is 4.50 versus 2.45 in the older two within his last five.
№ 02Lowder throws 54.3% fastballs, and Waldschmidt has posted a .353 xwOBA against fastballs across 65 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Lowder has walked 23 batters across 41.3 innings, a 5.0 BB/9 that puts him in the bottom tier of the league for command.
№ 04Great American Ball Park carries a 1.21 home run factor for right-handed hitters and a 1.06 run environment, with first-pitch temperature at 88°F.
№ 05If the game extends late, Tony Santillan carries a 5.88 ERA across 26.0 relief innings in an opposing bullpen operating without an established closer.
§ 01The analysis
Waldschmidt draws a starter whose surface results and peripherals both lean hittable. Rhett Lowder carries a 5.01 ERA across 41.3 innings, and the trend inside his last five starts is moving the wrong way — a 4.50 ERA in the most recent two versus 2.45 in the older two, with a 4.68 FIP across 18.3 innings in that window. Lowder also leans on his fastball at 54.3%, and Waldschmidt has run a .353 xwOBA against fastballs across 65 plate appearances. Command is a soft spot too, with 23 walks in 41.3 innings and a 5.0 BB/9. The venue helps a right-handed bat, with Great American Ball Park playing to a 1.21 home run factor for righties and a 1.06 run environment, plus 88°F at first pitch. The counter is real — Waldschmidt is hitting .225 with a 0.58 OPS in 87 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, so this is a price-driven swing on a hitter-friendly setup rather than a play on form. If the game opens up late, Tony Santillan's 5.88 ERA across 26.0 relief innings keeps extra-base chances on the board.
§ 02The call
Take Ryan Waldschmidt over 1.5 total bases at +170. The bet is built on the pitching matchup and the park, not the hitter's season line. Lowder's 5.01 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, and worsening trend inside his last five give a right-handed bat real opportunity, and a 1.21 home run factor for righties at Great American Ball Park with 88°F air rewards any loud contact. Stack in a shaky bullpen behind him, and the path to a double or a homer is clear enough to back at plus money.
Final resultWINRyan Waldschmidt OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +170 Graded Jun 13, 2026