Prediction markets

Where the markets disagree with the books.

Sportsbooks bake vig into every price. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are crowd-priced and near vig-free. When the two split, the market may see something the book's number hides. This is the whole MLB slate, sorted by how far apart they are. Market data, not bets.

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies
+2.6pp
Total 10.5→ under
Sportsbook+113 · 47%
Prediction mkt50¢ · 50%K
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds
+1.4pp
Total 9.5→ under
Sportsbook+108 · 48%
Prediction mkt50¢ · 50%K
Athletics vs San Francisco Giants
+1pp
Total 8.5→ under
Sportsbook+120 · 45%
Prediction mkt47¢ · 47%K
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Soxour pick →
+1pp
CLE ML→ CLE
Sportsbook-102 · 50%
Prediction mkt52¢ · 52%P
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Redsour pick →
+1pp
MIL ML→ MIL
Sportsbook+106 · 49%
Prediction mkt50¢ · 50%P

Prices from Kalshi (K) and Polymarket (P), updated through the day. This board is editorial market data, not betting advice. SkegBets does not take bets. Our picks are the small subset where our model also sees value, the odds tools convert prediction-market prices to odds, and our guide to prediction markets explains how Kalshi and Polymarket price these games.

How the board works

Q.01

What is the prediction-market board?

It's a daily scan of the entire MLB slate showing where the prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) price a game's moneyline or total differently than the sportsbooks. Sportsbooks bake vig into every line; prediction markets are crowd-priced and near vig-free, so when the two disagree the market may be reading something the book's number hides. It's market data, not a list of bets.

Q.02

How is this different from your picks?

The picks page is our opinion: the few bets our model flags, each with a full analysis. The board is the opposite. It shows market data on every game, with no opinion per row. When a board game is also one we picked, the row links to that pick, but it never repeats the analysis.

Q.03

How do I read a prediction-market price?

A prediction-market price is an implied probability: a Kalshi or Polymarket price of 53¢ means a 53% chance, which is about -113 in American odds. The board shows the book's implied probability next to the market's for the same side, and the gap between them in percentage points.

Q.04

Does the prediction market beat the sportsbook?

That's exactly what the archive tracks over time. When the market diverged from the book, did the market's side win? We publish the running record honestly, whatever it shows. The board surfaces the disagreements, and the archive grades who was right.