№ 01Nick Lodolo's 6.64 xERA sits below his 6.12 ERA, suggesting his contact quality has actually been a touch better than the surface line indicates.
№ 02Brandon Sproat shows the same gap with a 5.06 xERA against a 5.94 ERA, and his last two starts carry a 4.66 ERA versus 8.64 in the older pair of the five-start window.
№ 03Cincinnati's offense has a 7-day form score of -82 and is averaging just 4.0 runs per game over that window heading into this matchup.
№ 04The home side is without Ke'Bryan Hayes, Connor Burns, and Jaset Martinez on the injured list, while the away side is also missing Brandon Lockridge.
№ 05Trevor Megill's 2.40 xERA undercuts his 3.86 ERA, pointing to a late-game arm for the visitors that profiles better than the bottom-line number.
§ 01The analysis
The headline numbers on both starters look ugly, with Lodolo at a 6.12 ERA across 42.7 innings and Sproat sitting at 5.94 across 63.7. That is the case against the under, and Great American Ball Park's 1.06 run environment plus Sproat's fastball-heavy mix into a lineup that posts a .356 xwOBA on fastballs only adds to it. Lodolo's recent five-start window is also trending the wrong way, with the most recent two starts at 8.10 versus 2.84 in the older two. The pushback is that both xERAs sit under both ERAs, meaning contact quality has been a step ahead of results. Sproat is improving inside his window, with a 4.66 ERA in his last two against 8.64 in the older two. Cincinnati's bats are cold over the past week at a -82 form score and 4.0 runs per game, and the lineup is shorthanded with Hayes, Burns, and Martinez on the injured list. The away closer Megill also profiles better than his 3.86 ERA suggests, which helps keep a tight late game tight.
§ 02The call
Take under 9.5 at -102. The surface ERAs make this total look like a coin flip, but the underlying contact data on both starters points to regression toward something better than the runs allowed numbers suggest. The home offense is producing 4.0 runs per game over the last week and is missing three regulars, and Sproat is the better version of himself across his most recent two starts. The park and pitch-mix concerns are real, but the offensive form on the home side and the xERA gaps on both arms point under.
Final resultWINUnder 9.5 -102 · -102 Graded Jun 24, 2026