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Baseball · MLB ·

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Tommy Troy OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Line
+195
Bet type
Prop
Status
WIN
CLV
—
Key points — 5
  1. № 01Andrew Abbott's ERA has climbed to 4.50 over his last two starts versus 1.74 in the older two within a recent five-start window.
  2. № 02Abbott has walked 33 batters across 74.7 innings for a 4.0 BB/9, and his FIP sits at 4.75 with a 5.36 mark over his last 5 starts spanning 28.3 innings.
  3. № 03Great American Ball Park carries a 1.21 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season along with a 1.06 run environment, and the wind is blowing out to right at 9 mph at first pitch.
  4. № 04If the bullpen gets involved, closer Tony Santillan has run a 5.67 ERA across 27.0 relief innings, leaving extra-base damage available late.
  5. № 05The clear counter is Troy himself, hitting .222 on the season across 54 at-bats with a 0.64 OPS and just 5 hits in 32 at-bats over his last 10 games.

§ 01The analysis

This is a price-driven swing on a right-handed bat in a park that has been generous all year. Great American Ball Park carries a 1.21 home run factor for right-handed hitters and a 1.06 run environment, and the wind is blowing out to right at 9 mph at first pitch. Andrew Abbott's headline 4.10 ERA across 74.7 innings hides a softer underlying profile. His FIP sits at 4.75, his walk rate is 4.0 BB/9, and over his last 5 starts he has posted a 5.36 FIP across 28.3 innings with his two most recent outings at a 4.50 ERA versus 1.74 in the older pair. If the game gets to the back end, Tony Santillan has allowed a 5.67 ERA across 27.0 relief innings. The honest counter is Troy's own bat. He is hitting .222 on the season across 54 at-bats with a 0.64 OPS, and he has 5 hits in 32 at-bats over his last 10 games. Abbott has also held right-handed hitters to a .208 average across 236 matchups.

§ 02The call

At +195, Troy doesn't need a perfect day. He needs one swing that carries, and the setup is built for it. Abbott's command has slipped, his peripherals are worse than his ERA, and his last five starts show a 5.36 FIP. The ballpark plays up for right-handed power, the run environment is above neutral, and the wind is blowing out to right at first pitch. Troy's recent line is the reason the number is plus money, not a reason to pass. Take Tommy Troy over 1.5 total bases.

Final resultWINTommy Troy OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +195
Graded Jun 14, 2026

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