№ 01Waldschmidt is hitting .267 across 101 at-bats this season with a 0.68 OPS, showing he can make contact at a respectable clip.
№ 02The direct counter is that he has 0 home runs in those 101 at-bats, which is the central knock on a home run prop.
№ 03loanDepot park carries a 0.84 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season, so the venue trims power outcomes.
№ 04Over his last 10 games, Waldschmidt has 7 hits in 33 at-bats, keeping the bat involved even without the power showing.
№ 05Opposing starter Ryan Gusto has limited season data, leaving a small-sample read on the matchup.
§ 01The analysis
This is a longshot priced like a longshot, and the case is built on number rather than profile. Waldschmidt is hitting .267 in 101 at-bats with a 0.68 OPS, and over his last 10 games he has 7 hits in 33 at-bats, so the bat is active enough to keep him in the conversation. The honest counter is that he has 0 home runs in those 101 at-bats, and loanDepot park carries a 0.84 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season, which suppresses the very outcome the ticket needs. Ryan Gusto offers limited season data, so the matchup read is thin and the model is willing to give the unknown some benefit of the doubt. You do not need a play like this to hit often. You need the implied probability to be wrong, and the model thinks it is wrong by a meaningful margin even after weighing the zero-homer track record and the right-handed park drag at loanDepot park.
§ 02The call
The market is implying 8.3% on Waldschmidt to clear 0.5 home runs, the model lands at 17.2%, and that leaves an edge of 8.9%. The profile is not a power profile, the park leans against right-handed home runs, and the zero in the HR column is impossible to dress up. What gets this onto the card is the gap between market and model. The model believes the implied probability is materially short of fair, and that spread is wide enough to play through the obvious negatives. The lean is Waldschmidt over 0.5 home runs.
Final resultLOSSRyan Waldschmidt OVER 0.5 HR · +1100 Graded Jun 11, 2026