№ 01Grisham has racked up 13 hits in 40 at-bats over his last 10 games, a hot stretch heading into this matchup.
№ 02Yesavage throws 78.5% fastballs, and Grisham carries a .383 xwOBA against fastballs across 175 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Yesavage is trending the wrong way — his ERA across his two most recent starts sits at 5.91 versus 1.50 in the two before that.
№ 04Yesavage has walked 19 batters across 42.7 innings for a 4.0 BB/9, which puts him in the bottom tier of the league for command.
№ 05The counter is real — Yesavage owns a 3.16 ERA and 2.98 FIP, and has held lefties to a .194 average across 98 matchups this year.
§ 01The analysis
This bet leans on Grisham's recent form colliding with a pitcher trending in the wrong direction. Grisham has 13 hits in 40 at-bats over his last 10 games, well above his .232 season line and his .225 mark against right-handed pitching. The pitch-mix angle helps — Yesavage throws fastballs 78.5% of the time, and Grisham has run a .383 xwOBA against fastballs across 175 plate appearances. Command is the other lever. Yesavage has walked 19 across 42.7 innings, a 4.0 BB/9 that sits in the league's bottom tier, and his ERA has jumped to 5.91 across his two most recent starts after sitting at 1.50 in the two before that. The pushback is straightforward. Yesavage's season ERA is 3.16, his FIP is 2.98, and lefties have hit just .194 against him in 98 matchups. Louis Varland looms in the late innings at a 0.50 ERA across 35.7 frames. Rogers Centre plays neutral at a 1.00 run environment. The bet is Grisham finding one knock against a worsening, fastball-heavy starter.
§ 02The call
Take Grisham over 0.5 hits at -155. The cleanest read is a hot bat — 13 hits in his last 40 at-bats — walking into a fastball-dominant starter whose recent results have slipped to a 5.91 ERA over his last two outings. The xwOBA against fastballs gives Grisham a real path on Yesavage's primary pitch, and the 4.0 BB/9 means even quiet at-bats can turn into extra chances. The season ERA and lefty splits are the counter, but one hit is a low bar for a hitter in this kind of stretch.
Final resultWINTrent Grisham OVER 0.5 Hits · -155 Graded Jun 13, 2026