№ 01Jared Young has collected 8 hits in 23 at-bats over his last 10 games, giving this over 0.5 total bases number a clear runway.
№ 02Martín Pérez sits at a 4.57 xERA over 85.3 innings, with contact-quality metrics that suggest his run prevention is due to regress.
№ 03Pérez has walked 36 batters in 85.3 innings for a 3.8 BB/9, ranking in the bottom tier of the league for command.
№ 04Over Pérez's last 5 starts he has posted a 6.06 FIP across 23.3 innings, with swinging-strike and K rates below his own baseline.
№ 05Wind is blowing out to center at 10 mph at first pitch, adding carry on top of Young's .252 average and 0.76 OPS through 159 at-bats.
§ 01The analysis
Jared Young walks in with 8 hits in 23 at-bats across his last 10 games, and the matchup lines up with the form. Martín Pérez owns a 4.57 xERA over 85.3 innings, and the underlying contact quality says his run prevention has been better than the pitching. Command is a real issue: 36 walks in 85.3 innings works out to a 3.8 BB/9, bottom-tier stuff, and his 16.4% strikeout rate and full-season 4.37 FIP back up a starter batters can put the ball in play against. The last 5 starts have been worse, a 6.06 FIP over 23.3 innings with swinging-strike and K rates below his own baseline. Add in wind blowing out to center at 10 mph at first pitch and there is room for a single to travel or a gap ball to find grass. Young himself is hitting .252 on the season across 159 at-bats with a 0.76 OPS, ordinary numbers, but this is a 0.5 total bases threshold, not an OPS bet. The risk is real. Citi Field carries a 0.96 run environment, and if things stay tight, closer Raisel Iglesias and his 2.43 ERA across 37.0 relief innings can shorten the game.
§ 02The call
The lead fact is the recent bat: 8 hits in 23 at-bats over the last 10 games, walking into a starter whose 4.57 xERA, 3.8 BB/9 and 6.06 FIP over his last 23.3 innings all point the same direction. Wind out to center at 10 mph helps any ball Young squares up. Iglesias at a 2.43 ERA over 37.0 innings and Citi Field's 0.96 run environment are the honest counters, but they mostly matter if Young hasn't already cleared 0.5 total bases before the ninth.
Final resultWINJared Young OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -135 Graded Jul 28, 2026