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Baseball · MLB ·

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Over 8.5 -110
Line
-110
Bet type
Game
Status
LOSS
CLV
—
Key points · 5
  1. № 01Merrill Kelly carries a 5.81 ERA across 69.7 innings, and his 7.51 xERA suggests the underlying contact has been even worse than the runs allowed.
  2. № 02Kelly is trending the wrong way inside his last 5 starts, with a 6.35 ERA over his two most recent outings versus 2.92 in the older pair.
  3. № 03The home offense is averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last 7 days and gets to attack a fastball Kelly throws 50.8% of the time, a pitch the lineup posts a .351 xwOBA against.
  4. № 04Andre Pallante is only striking out 19.3% of batters, leaving plenty of balls in play against a home lineup carrying a 7-day form score of 50.
  5. № 05Umpire Nate Tomlinson's games this season have averaged 9.7 combined runs, a scoring environment that clears this number on its own.

§ 01The analysis

The case for the over starts with Merrill Kelly. His 5.81 ERA across 69.7 innings is already poor, and a 7.51 xERA plus a 5.90 FIP say the contact has been even louder than the line shows. He is striking out just 12.8% of hitters, his composite form score sits at -28, and within his last 5 starts the trend is downward — 6.35 ERA in the two most recent outings versus 2.92 in the older two. The home offense is averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last 7 days and posts a .351 xwOBA against fastballs, the pitch Kelly leans on 50.8% of the time. Behind him, the away bullpen has already thrown 296 pitches over the last three days. On the other side, Pallante's 3.76 ERA is real and he has improved across his last 5 starts, which is the main counter here, but a 19.3% strikeout rate puts plenty of balls in play. Nate Tomlinson's games have averaged 9.7 combined runs this season.

§ 02The call

Take the over 8.5. The lean side of this game is Kelly, whose ERA, xERA, FIP, form score and recent trend all point the same direction, and he is walking into a home lineup that hits his primary pitch hard and has scored 5.0 runs per game across the last week. Pallante's recent form is a fair counter, but his 19.3% strikeout rate and Tomlinson's 9.7 runs per game average behind the plate tilt the run environment up. Nine runs gets there.

Final resultLOSSOver 8.5 -110 · -110
Graded Jun 23, 2026

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