№ 01Michael McGreevy owns a 5.70 xERA across 83.3 innings, and the 2.35-run gap to his 3.35 ERA flags run prevention that's due to regress.
№ 02Zac Gallen's 5.66 xERA over 79.7 innings is no better, and his last five starts have gone from an 8.10 ERA earlier to a 10.80 ERA most recently.
№ 03Gallen throws 42.3% fastballs into a home lineup carrying a .351 xwOBA against fastballs this season across 1672 plate appearances.
№ 04Home offense is averaging 5.8 runs per game over the last seven days, away offense 5.0, with first-pitch temperature at 86°F at Busch Stadium.
№ 05McGreevy's swinging-strike and K stuff is trending down at a 16.6% strikeout rate, Gallen sits at 13.5%, and the home bullpen has burned 199 pitches in three days.
§ 01The analysis
Start with Michael McGreevy's 5.70 xERA across 83.3 innings. That sits 2.35 runs above his 3.35 ERA, and a 4.42 FIP says the underlying work backs the xERA, not the surface line. His swinging-strike and K stuff is trending down on a 16.6% strikeout rate. Zac Gallen brings a matching profile from the other side: 5.66 xERA across 79.7 innings, a 4.86 FIP, a 13.5% strikeout rate, and a five-start arc that has gone from an 8.10 ERA in the earlier outings to a 10.80 ERA in the most recent ones. He leans on his fastball 42.3% of the time, and the home lineup carries a .351 xwOBA against fastballs across 1672 plate appearances while trending up against right-handed pitching over 614 plate appearances. Both offenses are warming up, 5.8 runs per game for the home side and 5.0 for the away side over the last seven days. First pitch goes off at 86°F, warmer air carries the ball further, and the home bullpen has already thrown 199 pitches over the last three days at Busch Stadium.
§ 02The call
The counter is real. Zac Gallen's 6.10 ERA sits 0.44 runs above his 5.66 xERA, hinting he's closer to tightening up than melting down again. The away lineup has been trending down against right-handed pitching across 710 plate appearances, and Paul Sewald's 2.94 xERA underneath his 4.03 ERA suggests the late-game arm has pitched better than the line. Even with that, two starters at 5.70 and 5.66 xERA, warming offenses, an 86°F first pitch, and a tired home bullpen point the right way. Over 9 at -105 is the play.
Final resultPUSHOver 9 -105 · -105 Graded Jun 26, 2026