№ 01Noah Schultz brings a 6.05 xERA across 48.0 innings into this start, the kind of underlying number that turns hit props into live tickets.
№ 02Command has been the deepest hole in Schultz's profile, with 29 walks in 48.0 innings translating to a 5.4 BB/9.
№ 03The peripherals back the runs. Schultz's FIP sits at 5.02, and over his last 5 starts that number has climbed to 5.88 across 23.0 innings.
№ 04If the game gets to the ninth, Seranthony Domínguez has been usable at 4.55 ERA over 31.7 relief innings, keeping late at-bats live.
№ 05The risk is the bat itself. Colby Thomas is at .208 with a 0.60 OPS on 96 at-bats and 5 hits in 25 across his last 10 games.
§ 01The analysis
The lead here is what Noah Schultz has been under the hood. His 6.05 xERA across 48.0 innings paints a starter the model is not buying, and the walks tell the same story: 29 free passes in those 48.0 innings, a 5.4 BB/9 that lands in the bottom tier for command. His FIP has settled at 5.02 on the year, and the trend is the wrong way, with a 5.88 FIP across his last 5 starts covering 23.0 innings. Even if Colby Thomas gets retired his first two trips, there is a path to a hit through Seranthony Domínguez, who has surrendered a 4.55 ERA across 31.7 innings out of the pen. The counter is real. Thomas is hitting .208 with a 0.60 OPS across 96 at-bats, and the recent form is not any better at 5 hits in 25 at-bats over his last 10 games. Schultz has also held right-handed batters to a .204 average across 167 matchups, and Thomas has struggled specifically with the lefty changeup, hitting .100 in 22 plate appearances while whiffing on 38% of them.
§ 02The call
The bet is a vote on the pitcher's profile more than the hitter's form. A 6.05 xERA, a 5.4 BB/9, and a five-start FIP of 5.88 across 23.0 innings all point to a starter who gives up traffic, and the bullpen bridge through a 4.55 ERA closer keeps a fourth at-bat in play. Thomas at .208 with a 0.60 OPS is the honest risk, and the lefty changeup is a specific problem at .100 in 22 plate appearances. The price at -123 is paying for the matchup, not the bat.
Final resultLOSSColby Thomas OVER 0.5 Hits · -123 Graded Jul 12, 2026