№ 01Noah Schultz owns a 6.05 xERA across 48.0 innings, the underlying number that frames how hittable the matchup projects for Lawrence Butler.
№ 02Schultz has walked 29 in 48.0 innings for a 5.4 BB/9, bottom-tier command that keeps at-bats alive and inflates hit chances.
№ 03The peripherals back it up with a 5.02 FIP on the season and a 5.88 FIP across 23.0 innings over his last 5 starts.
№ 04If Butler misses the starter, Seranthony Domínguez and his 4.55 ERA over 31.7 relief innings offer another crack late.
№ 05The risk is Butler's own bat: .199 on 236 at-bats, a 0.52 OPS in 55 PA vs lefties, and .105 vs LHP sinkers.
§ 01The analysis
The lever on this ticket is Noah Schultz, who is running a 6.05 xERA across 48.0 innings and hasn't given hitters much reason to be patient. His 29 walks in that span work out to a 5.4 BB/9, which lands him in the bottom tier of the league for command, and the defense-independent read agrees: a 5.02 FIP on the year, ballooning to 5.88 FIP across 23.0 innings over his most recent 5 starts. Even if Butler doesn't cash off Schultz, Seranthony Domínguez has been leaky in the ninth with a 4.55 ERA across 31.7 relief innings, so the late-game path stays open. The honest case against is Butler himself. He's hitting .199 across 236 at-bats with a 0.60 OPS, and the platoon split is uglier: a 0.52 OPS in 55 plate appearances versus lefties.191 against left-handed pitching, and just .105 on left-handed sinkers across 19 plate appearances. The recent form matches, 5 hits in 27 at-bats over his last 10 games. The bet is that a wild lefty with a 5.02 FIP hands one back.
§ 02The call
You're buying the pitcher, not the hitter. Schultz's 6.05 xERA, 5.4 BB/9, and 5.88 FIP over his last 5 starts point to traffic, and Domínguez's 4.55 ERA across 31.7 relief innings gives Butler a second window if the starter escapes. Butler's .199 average and 0.52 OPS vs lefties in 55 PA are the reason this isn't shorter than -125, and the .105 mark on left-handed sinkers is a real hole. Take the over on the command profile and lean on the extra at-bat late.
Final resultLOSSLawrence Butler OVER 0.5 Hits · -125 Graded Jul 12, 2026