№ 01Wrobleski has a 1.25 ERA in six appearances with 15 K's in 36 IP (3.75 K/9), posting zero strikeouts in his most recent start
№ 02Elder has reinvented himself with a 2.02 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 49 innings, allowing only three home runs in that span
№ 03Both pitchers are command-first arms with elite contact suppression, creating a textbook Under profile for a low-scoring game
№ 04Ronald Acuña Jr.'s hamstring injury removes Atlanta's best offensive weapon, reducing expected run production against Wrobleski
№ 05Recent Under trends for both clubs (Dodgers 18-21 O/U; Braves 18-19-3 O/U) and top-tier bullpen play support a modest scoring pace
§ 01The analysis
This pitching matchup features two of the game's most dominant arms in 2024. Wrobleski has posted a dominant 1.25 ERA with exceptional command and weak-contact inducement, while Elder has engineered a career renaissance with a 2.02 ERA and only three home runs allowed in 49 innings. Both starters operate with sub-2.10 ERAs and feature elite contact suppression, the textbook profile for an Under. The absence of Ronald Acuña Jr. from Atlanta's lineup due to hamstring injury significantly blunts offensive firepower against Wrobleski, who thrives by forcing weaker contact rather than overpowering hitters. Both team bullpens are performing at a high level, with Atlanta's pen ranking among the league's best and the Dodgers' relief corps locked in during leverage situations. Recent trends favor lower-scoring affairs for both clubs, with the Dodgers at 18-21 O/U and the Braves at 18-19-3 O/U. Oddsmakers split between 9 and 9.5, signaling confidence in a pitching duel. The confluence of elite starting pitching, strong relief arms, reduced offensive firepower, and recent Under trends all point toward a 6-7 run final.
§ 02The call
The market is already acknowledging the pitching dominance by hovering between 9 and 9.5, but the structural advantages favor an even lower-scoring affair. With Wrobleski and Elder both suppressing contact effectively, Acuña sidelined, and both bullpens in form, expect a tightly contested game that stays under nine total runs. The Dodgers' left-hander's 3.75 K/9 rate and recent zero-strikeout outing reinforce that this game will be decided by weak contact and command, not power. Back the Under at -110 before any further line movement.
Final resultPUSHUnder 9 · -110 Graded May 11, 2026