№ 01Martín Pérez's xERA of 4.09 sits well above his surface 3.02 ERA, suggesting his contact-quality results have outrun his peripherals.
№ 02Pérez's FIP of 3.88 echoes the same story — the defense-independent number disagrees with the shiny ERA.
№ 03First-pitch temperature is 86°F, and warm air carries the ball further at Citi Field.
№ 04Over his last 10 games, A.J. Ewing has 10 hits in 36 at-bats, keeping his bat in rhythm coming into this spot.
№ 05The clear counter is the platoon split — Ewing is hitting .154 with a 0.44 OPS in 30 plate appearances against lefties this season.
§ 01The analysis
This is a plus-money swing on a hitter the market has discounted for a real reason. Pérez owns a 3.02 ERA across 56.7 innings, but his 4.09 xERA and 3.88 FIP both point to a pitcher whose contact-suppression has been propped up beyond what his stuff supports. He is striking out only 17.4% of batters, so balls are going to be put in play. The conditions help — 86°F at first pitch lets carry play in a park that otherwise grades as a 0.96 run environment. Ewing's season line of .253 with a 0.66 OPS across 99 at-bats is modest, but he has 10 hits in his last 36 at-bats, so the bat is moving. The honest counter is the handedness — Ewing's .154 average and 0.44 OPS in 30 plate appearances against left-handers is the reason this number prices at +195, and Raisel Iglesias and his 1.21 ERA across 22.3 innings sits behind Pérez if the Mets need to close it out. At this price, the regression case on Pérez is the lever.
§ 02The call
Take Ewing over 1.5 total bases at +195. The pitcher's surface ERA is hiding a 4.09 xERA and a 3.88 FIP, the day game is playing in 86°F air, and Ewing's bat has shown life with 10 hits across his last 36 at-bats. The platoon split is the obvious drag and the reason the number pays plus-money, but the price already accounts for that risk. When Pérez's peripherals and the conditions point the way they do, the regression side of this bet is where the value lives.
Final resultLOSSA.J. Ewing OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +195 Graded Jun 13, 2026