№ 01Martín Pérez carries a 3.02 ERA, but his xERA of 4.09 says the contact quality against him has been better than the surface line suggests.
№ 02Pérez's FIP of 3.88 also sits well above his ERA, reinforcing that his defense-independent peripherals trail his run-prevention number.
№ 03Pérez is striking out just 17.4% of batters this season, a modest whiff rate that gives Baty a reasonable chance to put the ball in play.
№ 04The counter is real on form — Baty has just 6 hits in 37 at-bats over his last 10 games and is hitting .224 on the season.
№ 05The platoon split also pushes against the over, with Baty hitting .189 and carrying a 0.56 OPS in 42 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching.
§ 01The analysis
This is a pick that leans on pitcher regression more than hitter form. Martín Pérez is sitting on a 3.02 ERA across 56.7 innings, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. His xERA is 4.09 and his FIP is 3.88, both meaningfully above the surface ERA, which means the contact-quality results against him have outrun what his peripherals would project. His 17.4% strikeout rate is modest, and he leans on the fastball at 58.1%, giving Baty pitches to handle even if his xwOBA on heaters is only .286. The counters are clear and have to be acknowledged. Baty has 6 hits in 37 at-bats over his last 10 games, is hitting .224 on the year with a 0.61 OPS, and the platoon split is ugly at .189 and a 0.56 OPS in 42 plate appearances against lefties. Citi Field's 0.96 run environment and Raisel Iglesias waiting in the back end with a 1.21 ERA do not help either. The bet is that contact, not quality, gets one hit across.
§ 02The call
Take Brett Baty over 0.5 hits at -120. The core of the case is that Martín Pérez has been outperforming his peripherals — a 3.02 ERA sitting under a 4.09 xERA and a 3.88 FIP — while striking out only 17.4% of hitters and throwing fastballs more than 58% of the time. That profile gives a struggling left-handed bat a workable path to one hit, even with the platoon split and recent slump weighing against him. It is not a clean spot, but the regression angle on the starter is enough to play the over.
Final resultLOSSBrett Baty OVER 0.5 Hits · -120 Graded Jun 13, 2026