№ 01Ozzie Albies is hitting .284 with a 0.79 OPS across 264 at-bats this season, giving him a steady offensive baseline.
№ 02Over his last 10 games, Albies has racked up 12 hits in 34 at-bats, keeping the recent form line trending the right way.
№ 03Sean Manaea brings a 5.02 ERA across 43.0 innings into this start, leaving room for extra-base damage even with strong peripherals underneath.
№ 04Against left-handed pitching this season, Albies carries a 0.84 OPS over 122 plate appearances and is hitting .313, a clean platoon edge for tonight.
№ 05Even if the Mets get to the bullpen, closer Devin Williams sits on a 5.01 ERA across 23.3 innings and is unavailable tonight after recent usage.
§ 01The analysis
The setup for Albies to clear 1.5 total bases leans on a hitter in rhythm against a starter who has been hit. Albies is at .284 with a 0.79 OPS on the season and just put up 12 hits in 34 at-bats over his last 10 games. The platoon angle lines up too — he carries a 0.84 OPS and a .313 average against left-handed pitching this season, and Manaea is the lefty on the mound at a 5.02 ERA over 43.0 innings. Manaea's 3.70 FIP and 33.3% strikeout rate are the obvious counter, so a whiff is in play, but the surface results haven't matched. Behind the starter, Devin Williams is unavailable after recent usage and carries a 5.01 ERA across 23.3 innings when he has pitched, and the home bullpen has already thrown 276 pitches over the last three days. Citi Field's 0.96 run environment is a mild drag, though the park still plays at a 1.04 home run factor, and a first-pitch temperature of 87°F helps the ball travel.
§ 02The call
The price of +114 on Albies over 1.5 total bases is the right side. A .284 hitter with a 0.79 OPS, riding 12 hits in his last 34 at-bats, gets a left-hander he should handle based on a 0.84 OPS and .313 average versus southpaws this season. Manaea's 5.02 ERA invites contact, the bullpen behind him is leaking runs and short on its closer, and an 87°F first pitch helps carry anything squared up. Take Albies over 1.5 total bases.
Final resultLOSSOzzie Albies OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +114 Graded Jun 13, 2026