№ 01Paul Skenes has been fading across his last 5 starts, with the most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones in that stretch.
№ 02Austin Riley is hitting .300 against right-handed sliders over the last 30 days across 22 plate appearances, a real avenue into this matchup.
№ 03Atlanta has taken 4 of the last 5 meetings against Pittsburgh, and PNC Park carries a 0.98 run environment this season.
№ 04The risk is stark: Riley is hitting .208 on the season over 322 at-bats with a 0.62 OPS, and just 6 hits in 37 at-bats his last 10 games.
№ 05Skenes owns a 2.76 xERA across 97.0 innings, a 2.80 FIP, a 30.1% strikeout rate, and has held right-handed hitters to .196 across 163 matchups.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Riley starts with the pitcher, not the hitter. Paul Skenes has been fading across his last 5 starts, with his most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones, and Riley brings a specific tool into the box: a .300 batting average against right-handed sliders over the last 30 days across 22 plate appearances. That's the pocket to attack in a game where Atlanta has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against this opponent and PNC Park is playing to a 0.98 run environment. The honest counter is loud. Riley is hitting .208 on the season across 322 at-bats with a 0.62 OPS.203 against right-handed pitching, and just 6 hits in 37 at-bats over his last 10 games. His 0.63 OPS in 236 plate appearances against righties this year underlines it. Skenes, meanwhile, carries a 2.76 xERA over 97.0 innings, a 2.80 FIP, a 30.1% strikeout rate, and has held right-handed batters to .196 across 163 matchups. Against cutters from righties this season Riley is .200 in 15 plate appearances with a 45% whiff rate, and Skenes's swinging-strike and K rates are running ahead of his own baseline.
§ 02The call
The read leans on a specific matchup edge, Riley's .300 mark against right-handed sliders over the last 30 days in 22 plate appearances, meeting a starter who has been trending the wrong way across his last 5 outings. The counter is fair and on the table: Skenes's 2.76 xERA and 2.80 FIP, his 30.1% strikeout rate, and Riley's .208 season line say a single hit is not automatic at -144. One clean swing on a slider is the path.
Final resultWINAustin Riley OVER 0.5 Hits · -144 Graded Jul 8, 2026