№ 01Dominic Smith is hitting .273 across 198 at-bats this season with a 0.72 OPS, a stable baseline for clearing a single knock.
№ 02Paul Skenes throws 61.5% fastballs, and Smith carries a .364 xwOBA against fastballs across 123 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Over Skenes's last 5 starts he has been fading, with his most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones in the sample.
№ 04Smith is hitting .291 against right-handed pitching this season and owns a .261 average against right-handed sliders over 26 plate appearances.
№ 05The counter sits on the mound: a 2.76 xERA over 97.0 innings, a 2.80 FIP, a 30.1% strikeout rate, and .190 allowed to lefties across 232 matchups.
§ 01The analysis
Start with the pitch mix. Paul Skenes leans on his fastball 61.5% of the time, and Dominic Smith has run a .364 xwOBA against fastballs across 123 plate appearances this season. That is the offering he sees most and the one he punishes best. The season line backs it up at .273 on 198 at-bats with a 0.72 OPS, and the split gets friendlier against right-handers, where Smith is hitting .291 with a 0.76 OPS across 187 plate appearances. His .261 average against right-handed sliders across 26 plate appearances gives him a secondary answer if Skenes leaves the heater. There is a trend on the other side too: across his last 5 starts Skenes has been fading, with the more recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones. Smith's own recent form is uneven at 6 hits in 27 at-bats over his last 10 games, and PNC Park sits at a 0.98 run environment, but his team has taken 4 of the last 5 meetings with this opponent. The number is -145 in a neutral park with the matchup pointed at his best zone.
§ 02The call
The risk is the pitcher's underlying quality. Skenes carries a 2.76 xERA over 97.0 innings, a 2.80 FIP, and a 30.1% strikeout rate, with a .190 average allowed to left-handed hitters across 232 matchups. His swinging-strike and K rates are running ahead of his own baseline, his contact quality has been sharper than his runs allowed suggest, and Smith is only .091 against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days on 12 plate appearances. The read is the fastball-heavy diet meeting a hitter built to handle it. Smith over 0.5 hits at -145.
Final resultLOSSDominic Smith OVER 0.5 Hits · -145 Graded Jul 8, 2026