№ 01Paul Skenes owns a 2.76 xERA over 97.0 innings, giving Yastrzemski one of the toughest matchups on any given night at the plate.
№ 02Skenes has held left-handed batters to a .190 average across 232 matchups this season while striking out 30.1% of hitters overall.
№ 03Yastrzemski is hitting just .077 against right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days across 14 plate appearances.
№ 04Skenes backs up the ERA with a 2.80 FIP, and his swinging-strike and strikeout rates are outpacing his own baseline.
№ 05Yastrzemski carries a 0.68 OPS in 212 plate appearances against righties this year and is hitting .230 against that side.
§ 01The analysis
The lead here is Paul Skenes and a 2.76 xERA over 97.0 innings, the kind of underlying number that keeps this Under from ever looking like a stretch. His 2.80 FIP echoes it, and the strikeout profile is right where you'd want it if you're fading a bat, with a 30.1% K rate and swinging-strike and strikeout numbers currently running ahead of his own baseline. Left-handed hitters have managed a .190 average against him across 232 matchups this season, so the platoon side offers no shelter. Yastrzemski shows up cold into that. He's at .077 against right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days on 14 plate appearances, hitting .230 against righties on the year with a 0.68 OPS across 212 trips, and has 5 hits in 24 at-bats over his last 10 games. PNC Park's 0.98 run environment does nothing to inflate the projection either. The honest risk is that Skenes has been fading over his last 5 starts, with the most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones, so the ace form isn't guaranteed to show up on the mound tonight.
§ 02The call
The math lines up in one direction. Skenes has the season-long profile of an elite arm at 2.76 xERA and 2.80 FIP, lefties have hit .190 off him, and Yastrzemski is bringing a .077 mark against righty four-seamers over the last 30 days into a neutral park at 0.98. The Skenes fade over his last 5 starts is the one real thread of concern, but with the price at -102 and Yastrzemski's full-season .226 line offering nothing to lean on, the Under 0.5 hits is the play.
Final resultLOSSMike Yastrzemski UNDER 0.5 Hits · -102 Graded Jul 8, 2026