№ 01Crawford has 13 hits in 34 at-bats over his last 10 games, a stretch of contact that fits the multi-base profile this number requires.
№ 02Bradish throws 51.2% fastballs and Crawford owns a .380 xwOBA against fastballs across 164 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Crawford slugs .579 against right-handed sinkers and .652 against right-handed changeups, covering the secondary pitches Bradish leans on.
№ 04Bradish has walked 39 batters across 73.3 innings for a 4.8 BB/9, and his last 5 starts carry a 6.07 FIP across 26.3 innings.
№ 05Across the last 5 starts, Bradish's ERA in the two most recent is 11.25 versus 2.38 in the older two — the arrow is pointing down.
§ 01The analysis
This is a bet on Crawford getting into a vulnerable right-hander, not a bet on a runaway offensive night. He has 13 hits in 34 at-bats over his last 10 games and carries a 0.83 OPS in 165 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, which is a real step up from his .231 season line across 195 at-bats. The pitch matchup lines up too. Bradish leans on a 51.2% fastball rate, and Crawford has a .380 xwOBA against fastballs over 164 plate appearances, plus a .579 slug against righty sinkers and a .652 slug against righty changeups. Bradish himself is fading. His season FIP is 4.66, his last 5 starts have produced a 6.07 FIP across 26.3 innings, and his most recent two starts carry an 11.25 ERA versus 2.38 in the two before that. A 4.8 BB/9 keeps the door open for extra-base counts. The counter is real — wind is blowing in at 9 mph and T-Mobile Park runs a 0.83 run environment — but the matchup edge is wider than the venue drag.
§ 02The call
Take Crawford OVER 1.5 total bases at +155. The path is the matchup. Bradish is a fastball-heavy righty who is walking the league at a 4.8 BB/9 clip and has posted a 6.07 FIP across his last 26.3 innings, and Crawford has done damage on exactly the pitches Bradish throws — a .380 xwOBA on fastballs, .579 slug against sinkers, .652 slug against changeups. With recent contact backing the matchup and Bradish trending the wrong way inside his last 5 starts, the plus price on a double or two singles is the right side.
Final resultLOSSJ.P. Crawford OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +155 Graded Jun 18, 2026