№ 01Garver has 7 hits in 28 at-bats over his last 10 games, a small recent sample that beats his .200 season average across 90 at-bats.
№ 02Shane Baz carries a 4.06 ERA across 82.0 innings and a 3.90 FIP, so the starter is hittable even if not generous.
№ 03Baz is striking out 19.3% of batters this season, a rate that leaves contact on the table for a one-base bar.
№ 04The headwind is real — Garver is hitting .137 against right-handed pitching with a 0.53 OPS in 61 plate appearances against righties.
№ 05Venue and conditions tilt against power, with T-Mobile Park at a 0.83 run environment and wind blowing in toward home at 10 mph.
§ 01The analysis
This is a contact-over-power lean on a low bar. Garver's full-season line is rough at .200 across 90 at-bats with a 0.65 OPS, and the platoon split is worse — .137 and a 0.53 OPS in 61 plate appearances against right-handers. The recent stretch is a touch better, with 7 hits in 28 at-bats over his last 10 games, which is the form window we are betting on. The matchup helps. Shane Baz runs a 4.06 ERA across 82.0 innings with a 3.90 FIP and a 19.3% strikeout rate, so balls get put in play. The counterweights are obvious. Baz has held right-handed hitters to a .208 average across 149 matchups and has run a 3.30 FIP over his last 5 starts across 30.7 innings. The park is a drag too, with T-Mobile Park sitting at a 0.83 run environment and a 0.91 home run factor for right-handed bats, plus a 10 mph wind blowing in toward home. We are not chasing a homer here. We are chasing one base.
§ 02The call
Take Garver over 0.5 total bases at -110. The bar is one base, the recent at-bat sample shows 7 hits in 28 tries, and Baz is a starter with a 4.06 ERA and a 19.3% strikeout rate, which leaves room for contact to find grass. The platoon profile and the park environment are real concerns and the reason this is not a bigger position, but a single is all that is needed to cash. On a day game at T-Mobile, that is the right side of this number.
Final resultLOSSMitch Garver OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -110 Graded Jun 18, 2026