№ 01Shane Baz has posted a 3.37 FIP across 29.7 innings over his last five starts, the sharpest window to judge the arm Crow-Armstrong sees tonight.
№ 02If the Cubs need a hit late, they run into Rico Garcia and his 2.37 ERA across 38.0 relief innings closing out games.
№ 03Camden Yards is playing to a 0.98 run environment this season, offering no ballpark tailwind for a hitter trying to break through once.
№ 04The honest risk is the bat itself: Crow-Armstrong is hitting .292 on the season with a 0.91 OPS and 11 hits in his last 34 at-bats.
№ 05Baz's season line of 4.49 xERA and 20.3% strikeout rate is the softer backdrop under the recent five-start form driving this price.
§ 01The analysis
The number to build around is Shane Baz's 3.37 FIP across 29.7 innings over his most recent five starts. That is the pitcher Crow-Armstrong actually walks in against, and at +189 for the under 0.5 hits, the price is paying you to trust the recent form. Baz's full-season peripherals sit at a 3.69 FIP and 4.49 xERA with a 20.3% strikeout rate, and Camden Yards is running a 0.98 run environment, so the setting is not helping the bat either. If the game tightens and Chicago needs one more shot, that shot comes against Rico Garcia and his 2.37 ERA across 38.0 relief innings, one of the more dependable ninth-inning arms in the league. The counter is straightforward. Crow-Armstrong is hitting .292 on the year with a 0.91 OPS.286 against righties with a 0.92 OPS in 262 plate appearances, and 11 hits in 34 at-bats over his last 10 games. He carries a .380 xwOBA against fastballs on 218 plate appearances, and Baz throws 59.1% fastballs. The recent 30-day splits also flash a .375 average on right-handed sliders and .389 on changeups.
§ 02The call
The bet rides on the version of Baz who has pitched to a 3.37 FIP over his last 29.7 innings, in a park playing at 0.98, with Garcia and his 2.37 ERA waiting if anything leaks late. The counter is real. Crow-Armstrong is swinging a .292 average and 0.91 OPS bat, he has 11 hits in his last 34 at-bats, and his .380 xwOBA on fastballs lines up with a starter who throws them 59.1% of the time. +189 is the number that has to cover that risk.
Final resultLOSSPete Crow-Armstrong UNDER 0.5 Hits · +189 Graded Jul 8, 2026