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Baseball · MLB ·

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Over 10 -107
Line
-107
Bet type
Game
Status
LOSS
CLV
-5.6%
Key points · 5
  1. № 01Nick Lodolo's 6.12 xERA across 57.7 innings is the loudest number on the card, sitting 1.44 runs above his 4.68 ERA and flagging regression in run prevention.
  2. № 02Javier Assad tells a similar story with a 4.65 xERA across 56.3 innings against a 4.15 ERA, and his 5.04 FIP runs louder than the 4.56 mark backing it up.
  3. № 03Lodolo throws 52.3% fastballs into an away lineup carrying a .352 xwOBA against fastballs across 2127 plate appearances and running red-hot against left-handed pitching across 274 plate appearances.
  4. № 04Assad leans on fastballs 73.7% of the time against a home lineup at .349 xwOBA on fastballs across 2006 plate appearances, with Great American Ball Park at a 1.06 run environment.
  5. № 05Emilio Pagán is the top leverage arm in the home bullpen at a 6.06 ERA, and away closer Jacob Webb's 4.22 xERA sits above his 3.18 ERA, so both late-inning bridges leak.

§ 01The analysis

The case for going over 10 begins with Nick Lodolo, whose 6.12 xERA across 57.7 innings dwarfs the 4.68 ERA sitting next to his name. That 1.44-run gap is the loudest note on the card, and Javier Assad plays a similar tune from the other side: a 4.15 ERA propped up over a 4.65 xERA across 56.3 innings, with a 5.04 FIP running louder than the 4.56 backing it. Neither arm misses many bats, with Lodolo at an 18.9% strikeout rate and Assad at 15.1%. The fastball matchups push the same way. Lodolo throws 52.3% heaters into an away lineup posting a .352 xwOBA against fastballs across 2127 plate appearances, a group that has been red-hot against left-handed pitching across 274 plate appearances. Assad counters with a 73.7% fastball rate against a home lineup at .349 xwOBA on fastballs across 2006 plate appearances, and Great American Ball Park's 1.06 run environment amplifies whatever contact lands. The late innings offer no cover: Emilio Pagán sits at a 6.06 ERA as the top leverage arm at home, and Jacob Webb's 4.22 xERA runs above his 3.18 ERA.

§ 02The call

The honest risk is Lodolo's recent form. Over his last 5 starts the arrow points up, with an 8.10 ERA in the earlier outings collapsing to 0.82 in the most recent ones. The home offense has also gone ice-cold at 4.0 runs per game over the last 7 days and has been cooling against right-handed pitching across 660 plate appearances, with Blake Dunn and Dane Myers both on the 10-day injured list. Even so, the xERA gaps on both starters, the fastball matchups, the 1.06 park, and shaky late-game arms push the total over 10.

Final resultLOSSOver 10 -107 · -107
Graded Jul 12, 2026

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