№ 01Home starter Kodai Senga has been hit hard this year, carrying a 9.00 ERA across 24.0 innings with a 6.68 FIP backing up the damage.
№ 02Away starter Edward Cabrera has not offered much resistance either, sitting at a 5.21 ERA over 67.3 innings with a 5.11 FIP.
№ 03The away offense is running a 7-day form score of 32 and averaging 8.0 runs per game over that window, traveling in with real production.
№ 04Both top leverage arms have leaked runs, with Devin Williams at a 4.81 ERA and Caleb Thielbar at a 4.95 ERA, so the late innings stay live.
№ 05Senga leans on fastballs 64.1% of the time and the opposing lineup owns a .361 xwOBA against fastballs across 1755 plate appearances this year.
§ 01The analysis
The pitching matchup is the engine here. Senga's 9.00 ERA over 24.0 innings and 6.68 FIP point to a starter who has not found his footing, and his 64.1% fastball usage runs straight into a lineup carrying a .361 xwOBA against heaters across 1755 plate appearances. Cabrera is not the answer on the other side, sitting at a 5.21 ERA and 5.11 FIP across 67.3 innings. The visiting offense is also rolling, with a 7-day form score of 32 and 8.0 runs per game over that stretch. Bullpens do not slam the door either, with Williams at 4.81 and Thielbar at 4.95. The counters are real and worth saying out loud: Senga's 5.10 xERA hints his contact has been better than the runs, the home offense carries a -22 form score at 4.6 runs per game, Citi Field plays at a 0.96 run environment, and Francisco Lindor, Ronny Mauricio, and Tyrone Taylor are all on the IL for the home side. Even with those drags, the starter quality is the loudest signal.
§ 02The call
Take Over 8.5 at -105. Two starters with ERAs of 9.00 and 5.21 and FIPs above 5 give this total a clear path early, and Senga's fastball-heavy mix walks into a lineup that punishes that pitch. The away bats are also putting up 8.0 runs per game over the last week, so the visiting side is showing up. The home offense slump and the slight Citi Field park drag are fair counters, but the pitching matchup and live bullpens on both sides do enough work. Lean Over.
Final resultWINOver 8.5 -105 · -105 Graded Jun 24, 2026