№ 01Shane Baz is carrying a 4.54 xERA across 94.0 innings, the weaker side of a matchup that already sits in front of an 87°F first pitch at Camden Yards.
№ 02Baz's last five starts show a clear downturn, with a 2.13 ERA in the earlier outings climbing to a 6.00 ERA in the most recent ones.
№ 03Both starters lean on the fastball: Baz throws it 59.1% of the time into a lineup with a .348 xwOBA on heaters, and Burke throws 57.8% into a .362 xwOBA group.
№ 04The visiting offense is averaging 6.4 runs per game over the last 7 days, and both lineups have trended up against right-handed pitching across 764 and 600 plate appearances.
№ 05Seranthony Domínguez's 5.05 xERA sits above his 4.30 ERA, and both catchers are bleeding called strikes, 0.8 and 0.6 per 100 taken pitches below baseline.
§ 01The analysis
The case for the over starts with Shane Baz, who has a 4.54 xERA across 94.0 innings and is trending the wrong way: a 2.13 ERA over his earlier recent starts has given way to a 6.00 ERA in his most recent ones. He throws 59.1% fastballs into a lineup posting a .348 xwOBA against heaters this year, and across the diamond Sean Burke goes 57.8% fastballs into a group sitting at .362 xwOBA on the pitch. The visiting bats have been pouring it on, averaging 6.4 runs per game over the last 7 days, and both lineups have been trending up against right-handed pitching, with sample sizes of 764 and 600 plate appearances. The bullpen door cracks open too, with Seranthony Domínguez's 5.05 xERA running ahead of his 4.30 ERA. Both catchers are giving back called strikes versus the league baseline, 0.8 per 100 for the home side and 0.6 for the away, and first pitch is 87°F. The risk: the home offense has been averaging just 3.8 runs per game over the last 7 days, Burke's whiff stuff is trending up, and the visitors are missing Munetaka Murakami on the injured list.
§ 02The call
Two fastball-heavy starters running into lineups that hammer the pitch, a Baz form line tracking from 2.13 ERA to 6.00 ERA, and a road offense putting up 6.4 runs per game over the last 7 days is the heart of this over. Add 87°F at first pitch, two catchers losing called strikes at 0.8 and 0.6 per 100, and a setup arm whose 5.05 xERA outruns his 4.30 ERA, and the price at -120 holds up even with a cold home bat at 3.8 runs per game and Murakami out.
Final resultWINOver 9 -120 · -120 Graded Jun 30, 2026