№ 01Davis Martin throws 57.0% fastballs, and Spencer Torkelson carries a .362 xwOBA against fastballs across 171 plate appearances this season.
№ 02Martin is trending the wrong way inside his last five starts, with an 8.68 ERA over his most recent two outings versus 3.86 in the older two.
№ 03Against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days, Spencer Torkelson posts a .511 xwOBA across 14 plate appearances.
№ 04The counter is real - Spencer Torkelson is hitting .203 on the season across 251 at-bats and has just 5 hits in 34 at-bats over his last 10 games.
№ 05The away bullpen has thrown 193 pitches over the last three days, leaving extra exposure if Martin exits early at Comerica Park.
§ 01The analysis
This price reflects how poorly Spencer Torkelson has been swinging the bat, and the facts do not hide that. He is hitting .203 on the year across 251 at-bats with a 0.71 OPS, he carries a 0.70 OPS in 220 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and he has 5 hits in 34 at-bats over his last 10 games. He is also 3-for-16 with a home run in 16 career plate appearances against Davis Martin. That is the case against. The case for is built on pitch shape. Davis Martin throws 57.0% fastballs, and Spencer Torkelson's .362 xwOBA against fastballs over 171 plate appearances is the part of his profile that has not collapsed. His .511 xwOBA against right-handed sinkers across the last 30 days, on 14 plate appearances, points the same direction. Martin's surface ERA sits at 3.31, but his recent starts tell a different story, with an 8.68 ERA over his most recent two outings versus 3.86 in the older two. Comerica Park grades at a 1.02 run environment and a 1.00 home run factor for right-handed hitters.
§ 02The call
At +180, you are getting paid to bet on the matchup over the slump. Davis Martin leans on a fastball Spencer Torkelson handles well, his form has tilted from 3.86 to 8.68 across his most recent starts, and Torkelson's contact quality against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days lines up with what Martin actually throws. The slash line is ugly, the head-to-head sample is small, and Martin's 2.76 FIP is sharp, but the pitch-mix edge and the price gap are real. Take Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 Total Bases.
Final resultWINSpencer Torkelson OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +180 Graded Jun 21, 2026