№ 01Chase Meidroth is hitting .280 on the season across 254 at-bats with a 0.75 OPS, giving this number a real contact floor.
№ 02Over his last 10 games, Meidroth has 13 hits in 38 at-bats, so the bat is producing right now.
№ 03Gerrit Cole's ERA in his most recent two starts sits at 5.79 versus 0.00 in the older two, a clear worsening trend within his last five.
№ 04Yankee Stadium carries a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season, which lifts the ceiling on a multi-base outcome.
№ 05Wind is blowing out to left at 13 mph at first pitch, helping any pulled or elevated contact from a right-handed bat.
§ 01The analysis
This is a plus-money swing on a contact hitter walking into a friendly batter's box. Meidroth is hitting .280 across 254 at-bats with a 0.75 OPS, and the recent stretch backs it up with 13 hits in 38 at-bats over his last 10 games. The pitching matchup is the part that catches the eye. Gerrit Cole's headline ERA reads 2.45 across 22.0 innings, which is the obvious counter here, but the shape underneath is shifting. His ERA over his most recent two starts is 5.79 against 0.00 in the older two, and his FIP sits at 4.05 with a 21.2% strikeout rate. The venue helps too. Yankee Stadium runs a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters, and the wind is blowing out to left at 13 mph at first pitch. The cleanest hole in the case is Meidroth's 0.0% barrel rate against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days on 16 plate appearances, and his 0.67 OPS versus righties is not loud either, so a doubles-or-homer outcome is what gets this paid at +180.
§ 02The call
Take Meidroth over 1.5 total bases. The season slash and the 13-for-38 last 10 games say the bat is in working order, and Cole's last two starts at a 5.79 ERA suggest the front-line label is doing more work than the recent results. Add a 1.19 right-handed home run factor at Yankee Stadium plus a 13 mph wind blowing out to left and the multi-base outcome has a real path. At +180, the price is paying for a ceiling result that the park, the wind, and Cole's recent slide all point toward.
Final resultLOSSChase Meidroth OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +180 Graded Jun 17, 2026