№ 01Montgomery owns a 0.83 OPS in 79 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, the splits profile that matters most in this matchup.
№ 02Carlos Rodón has issued 19 walks across 31.0 innings for a 5.5 BB/9, giving Montgomery extra count leverage to work with.
№ 03Yankee Stadium plays as a 1.19 home run factor for left-handed hitters this season, a real boost on any ball driven to the pull side.
№ 04Recent form is the clear counter — Montgomery has just 5 hits in 36 at-bats over his last 10 games and is at .221 on the season.
№ 05He is 2-for-5 in 6 career plate appearances against Rodón, a small but useful track record of squaring him up.
§ 01The analysis
This price reflects a hitter the market does not trust right now, and there is reason for that. Montgomery is hitting .221 on the season with a 0.80 OPS, and the last 10 games have produced just 5 hits in 36 at-bats. Rodón is not an easy draw either, carrying a 3.19 ERA across 31.0 innings with a 3.58 FIP and a 3.40 FIP over his most recent 5 starts. That said, the platoon side is where this bet lives. Montgomery is at .229 with a 0.83 OPS in 79 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, and he slugs .429 against LHP sliders. Rodón's 5.5 BB/9 leaves room to get into hitter's counts, and Yankee Stadium's 1.19 home run factor for left-handed hitters turns any pulled fly ball into a real total-base threat. Montgomery is also 2-for-5 in 6 career plate appearances against Rodón. At +163, you only need one extra-base hit or a pair of singles to cash.
§ 02The call
Take Montgomery OVER 1.5 total bases at +163. The recent slump is real and Rodón's overall numbers are solid, but the matchup-specific case is stronger than the price suggests. A left-handed bat with a 0.83 OPS vs LHP, facing a starter walking 5.5 per nine, in a park that boosts lefty power to 1.19, is not a profile you typically get at plus money. The small head-to-head sample adds another nudge. One extra-base knock or a multi-hit night clears this, and the venue and command picture give him the path.
Final resultWINColson Montgomery OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +163 Graded Jun 18, 2026