№ 01Meidroth has crushed left-handed pitching this season, posting a 0.99 OPS across 80 plate appearances and hitting .366 against southpaws.
№ 02Against left-handed four-seamers specifically, Meidroth carries a .706 slugging mark across 24 plate appearances — the pitch type Weathers will lean on.
№ 03Weathers is trending the wrong way, with a 9.58 ERA in his most recent two starts versus 3.65 in the older two and a 6.07 FIP across his last 29.3 innings.
№ 04Yankee Stadium plays to a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season, and the wind is blowing out to center at 16 mph at first pitch.
№ 05Weathers has already surrendered 13 home runs to right-handed batters across 242 matchups this season, a clear vulnerability for a righty bat at this park.
§ 01The analysis
Meidroth has been a problem for left-handed pitching, hitting .366 with a 0.99 OPS across 80 plate appearances versus southpaws this year. On Weathers's primary weapon, the four-seamer from a lefty, Meidroth is slugging .706 in 24 plate appearances. Weathers comes in trending poorly — his ERA has jumped to 9.58 across his most recent two starts after a 3.65 mark in the older two, his FIP over the last 5 starts is 6.07, and his composite form score sits at -58 with his swinging-strike and strikeout rates falling below baseline. He has already allowed 13 home runs to right-handed batters across 242 matchups. The setting helps too. Yankee Stadium carries a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters, the wind is out to center at 16 mph, and first-pitch temperature is 86°F. The counter is real — Meidroth carries just a .262 xwOBA against left-handed sinkers in 11 plate appearances, so if Weathers leans sinker-heavy, the path narrows. At +900, the price still covers that risk.
§ 02The call
Meidroth's profile against left-handed pitching lines up directly with the pitch mix Weathers will deploy, and Weathers's recent form points to a starter giving up loud contact. Add a 1.19 right-handed home run park, a 16 mph wind blowing out to center, and 86°F air, and the conditions favor a right-handed bat catching a ball. The sinker vulnerability is a fair concern, but at +900 on the over 0.5 home run line, the matchup pays you well enough to take the swing. Lean to the over.
Final resultLOSSChase Meidroth OVER 0.5 HR · +900 Graded Jun 19, 2026