Key points — 5
- № 01Nolan McLean takes the ball for the Mets with strong underlying skill, a 3.57 season ERA backed by a 2.94 FIP and 2.92 xERA across 58 IP. The right-hander punches out batters at a 29.5% clip, elite swing-and-miss profile.
- № 02Nick Lodolo, a left-hander, comes in with a 7.20 ERA across just 15 IP in 3 starts, small-sample, but the peripherals back it up with a 6.90 FIP and 7.44 xERA. The recent stretch confirms it: 7.20 ERA with 9 walks across his last starts.
- № 03The handedness picture cuts hard against the Mets. New York grades at -17 vs LHP across 281 PA, and Juan Soto specifically sits in a platoon mismatch, his .689 OPS vs lefties is well below his 0.949 season line. Meanwhile Cincinnati grades at +33 vs RHP across 757 PA.
- № 04The Mets' lineup is gutted. Lindor, Alvarez, Polanco, and Mauricio are all on the 10-day IL. That helps explain the league-worst 30 OPS ranking and 30 OBP ranking. New York has dropped 3 straight.
- № 05Bullpens cut against Cincinnati. The Reds run an unsettled ninth-inning role, Santillan leads in leverage but carries a 5.85 ERA with a brutal 10.80 mark over his last 10. Ashcraft (6.55 last-10 ERA) and Burke (7.45) are also slumping. New York's pen offers Raley at 0.96 and Weaver at 1.59 recently, a clear edge late.