№ 01Blake Dunn is hitting .267 on the season across 116 at-bats with a 0.70 OPS, giving the over a workable baseline of contact.
№ 02Cam Schlittler's xERA of 2.81 sits well above his 1.82 ERA, a sign his contact-quality results have outrun his peripherals.
№ 03Yankee Stadium plays to a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season, which lifts the extra-base ceiling for a righty bat.
№ 04Wind is blowing out to right at 12 mph at first pitch, adding carry on any pulled or oppo fly from a right-handed hitter.
№ 05The counter is real: Schlittler carries a 1.82 ERA and Dunn owns just a .290 xwOBA against fastballs, which Schlittler throws 90.5% of the time.
§ 01The analysis
This is a price play on a hitter who has been steady enough to clear two bases when the run environment cooperates. Dunn is hitting .267 with a 0.70 OPS on the season and .265 against right-handed pitching, so the floor is not the issue at +170. The angle is that Schlittler's surface line overstates his stuff. His 1.82 ERA is propped up by contact luck, with an xERA of 2.81 and a composite form score of -66 that flags fading swinging-strike and strikeout rates. Yankee Stadium adds the second push, carrying a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters with the wind blowing out to right at 12 mph at first pitch, which turns pulled fly balls into doubles and homers. The counter has to be acknowledged. Schlittler has held right-handed batters to a .163 average, his FIP is 2.28, and Dunn's .290 xwOBA against fastballs is not encouraging against a 90.5% fastball arm. That is exactly why the number is +170, but the park and weather give Dunn a path to clear 1.5 on one swing.
§ 02The call
Take Blake Dunn over 1.5 total bases at +170. The bet is built on the gap between Schlittler's 1.82 ERA and his 2.81 xERA, layered with a ballpark that plays to a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters and a 12 mph wind blowing out to right. Dunn does not need a multi-hit night. He needs one extra-base ball in the air, and the venue is set up to reward that. At plus money on a hitter with a real season profile, this is the right side.
Final resultWINBlake Dunn OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +170 Graded Jun 19, 2026