№ 01Cam Schlittler throws 90.5% fastballs, and Steer carries a .387 xwOBA against fastballs across 167 plate appearances this season.
№ 02Schlittler's xERA of 2.81 sits above his 1.82 ERA, suggesting his contact-quality results have outrun his peripherals.
№ 03Yankee Stadium carries a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season, with wind blowing out to right at 12 mph at first pitch.
№ 04Schlittler's composite form score is -66 on the season, with his swinging-strike and K rates falling below his own baseline.
№ 05The counter is real - Steer has just 2 hits in 31 at-bats over his last 10 games, and Schlittler has held righties to a .163 average across 135 matchups.
§ 01The analysis
The pitch-mix angle is the spine of this ticket. Schlittler throws 90.5% fastballs, and Steer has a .387 xwOBA against fastballs across 167 plate appearances this season. That is the exact pitch Steer handles best, coming from an arm that almost never throws anything else. Schlittler's surface line of 1.82 ERA is loud, but his xERA sits at 2.81 and his composite form score is -66, with swinging-strike and K rates dipping below his own baseline. The venue helps too. Yankee Stadium plays at a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters, and the wind is blowing out to right at 12 mph at first pitch, which is exactly the gap Steer would pull a fastball into. The case against is honest. Steer has just 2 hits in his last 31 at-bats and is hitting .223 against right-handed pitching, and Schlittler has held righties to a .163 average across 135 matchups. At +195, the bet is paid to absorb that cold stretch and lean on the pitch-mix and park edges.
§ 02The call
Take Steer over 1.5 total bases at +195. The matchup is the reason - a fastball-heavy starter whose peripherals already lag his ERA, facing a hitter whose strongest pitch on the season is exactly that fastball, in a park that boosts right-handed power with the wind helping out to right. The recent slump and the platoon split are real counters, but the price reflects them. When the pitch mix, the venue, and the wind all line up on the same side, this is the spot to take a swing on Steer finding the gap or the seats.
Final resultLOSSSpencer Steer OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +195 Graded Jun 20, 2026