№ 01Blake Dunn is hitting .277 on the season across 119 at-bats with a 0.73 OPS, giving the over a reasonable baseline production profile.
№ 02Yankee Stadium carries a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters this season, which boosts the extra-base ceiling needed to clear 1.5 bases.
№ 03Wind is blowing out to right at 16 mph at first pitch, adding carry on any elevated contact Dunn puts in play.
№ 04Will Warren's composite form score is -88 on the season, with his swinging-strike and K rates falling below his own baseline.
№ 05Dunn carries a 0.76 OPS in 92 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, lining up with the Warren matchup.
§ 01The analysis
Dunn brings a workable offensive profile into a venue and weather setup that tilt toward extra-base contact. He is hitting .277 across 119 at-bats with a 0.73 OPS on the season, and his work against right-handed pitching has been similar — a 0.76 OPS in 92 plate appearances and a .282 average. Over his last 10 games he has 12 hits in 43 at-bats, so he is putting the ball in play. The venue helps. Yankee Stadium carries a 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters, and wind is blowing out to right at 16 mph at first pitch in daylight. Warren's composite form score sits at -88, with his swinging-strike and K rates below his own baseline. The counter is real — Warren carries a 3.47 ERA and a 3.25 FIP, and Dunn has only a .290 xwOBA against fastballs across 66 plate appearances while Warren throws 67.6% fastballs. At +165, the venue and wind tilt enough of that math back toward the over.
§ 02The call
Take Blake Dunn over 1.5 total bases at +165. The price reflects the matchup risk against a starter with a 3.47 ERA and 3.25 FIP, but the ballpark and weather are doing real work here. A 1.19 home run factor for right-handed hitters, wind blowing out to right at 16 mph, and Warren's -88 form score with deteriorating swing-and-miss numbers all push toward harder contact carrying further. With Dunn already at a 0.76 OPS versus righties and producing in his recent stretch, the over is the right side.
Final resultWINBlake Dunn OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +165 Graded Jun 20, 2026