№ 01Andrew Abbott's last five starts show a clear upward trend, with a 4.50 ERA in the earlier outings sharpening to a 1.80 ERA in the most recent ones.
№ 02Pittsburgh's lineup has been cooling against left-handed pitching across a 205 plate appearance sample over the last 30 days, which lines up with what Abbott brings.
№ 03Abbott's swinging-strike and strikeout rates are running ahead of his own season baseline, the kind of stuff uptick that travels.
№ 04Paul Skenes throws 61.9% fastballs and the opposing lineup carries a .356 xwOBA against fastballs across 1718 plate appearances this season.
№ 05The honest counter is Skenes himself: a 2.60 xERA and 2.61 FIP across 88.0 innings, with a 30.5% strikeout rate that dwarfs Abbott's 17.8%.
§ 01The analysis
The case for the away side at +164 leans on where Andrew Abbott is right now. His last five starts split cleanly: a 4.50 ERA in the earlier outings against a 1.80 ERA in the most recent ones, and the underlying stuff backs the move, with swinging-strike and strikeout rates running ahead of his own season baseline. The matchup helps too. Pittsburgh's lineup has been cooling against left-handed pitching across a 205 plate appearance sample, and they're down Oneil Cruz (D10) and Spencer Horwitz (D10). On the other side, Paul Skenes throws 61.9% fastballs, and the opposing lineup carries a .356 xwOBA against fastballs across 1718 plate appearances this year. The risk is that Skenes is the better pitcher by a wide margin: a 2.60 xERA and 2.61 FIP across 88.0 innings, striking out 30.5% of hitters, while Abbott's 4.84 xERA and 4.81 FIP say his 3.83 ERA has been outrunning the underlying contact. The away offense also ranks 24 of 30 in OPS at 0.70 and has averaged just 3.3 runs per game over the last 7 days.
§ 02The call
At +164, the price pays for the pitching gap, and the bet leans on the version of Abbott who has shown up over his most recent five starts plus a Pittsburgh order that's been soft on lefties and missing two regulars. Skenes is the obvious problem, and Tony Santillan's 5.23 ERA across 31.0 relief innings adds late-game risk if it stays close. The matchup angles, the recent form, and the plus number still give the away side enough of a path to make this worth the ticket.
Final resultWINCincinnati Reds ML +164 · +164 Graded Jun 27, 2026