№ 01Andrew Abbott's 4.84 xERA across 84.7 innings tells a different story than his 3.83 ERA, a 1.01-run gap pointing to regression in run prevention
№ 02Abbott's 4.81 FIP backs up the xERA read, and his 17.8% strikeout rate gives the opposing lineup plenty of contact to work with
№ 03Paul Skenes throws 61.9% fastballs into a lineup posting a .356 xwOBA against fastballs over 1718 plate appearances this year
№ 04Abbott's 48.6% fastball usage runs into a lineup with a .353 xwOBA versus fastballs across 1775 plate appearances
№ 05Cincinnati's top leverage arm Tony Santillan carries a 5.23 ERA, so late-inning runs are very much on the table
§ 01The analysis
The case for the over starts with Andrew Abbott's underlying line. He's pitched to a 3.83 ERA across 84.7 innings, but the 4.84 xERA and 4.81 FIP both tell a louder story, a roughly one-run gap that says the run prevention has been borrowed. A 17.8% strikeout rate doesn't help him bail out of trouble either. The fastball matchups line up for both sides. Paul Skenes leans on heaters 61.9% of the time and walks into a lineup posting a .356 xwOBA against fastballs over 1718 plate appearances. Abbott throws 48.6% fastballs into a group sitting at .353 xwOBA against the pitch on 1775 plate appearances. Behind Abbott, Cincinnati's top leverage arm Tony Santillan is carrying a 5.23 ERA, which keeps the late innings live. The honest risk is the other dugout. Skenes owns a 2.60 xERA and 2.61 FIP across 88.0 innings with a 30.5% strikeout rate and stuff that's trending up. Abbott has also tightened lately, a 4.50 ERA in his earlier recent starts against 1.80 in the most recent ones, and PNC Park sits at a 0.98 run environment.
§ 02The call
The number to anchor on is 4.84, Abbott's xERA, with a matching 4.81 FIP and a 17.8% strikeout rate that doesn't bail him out of jams. Both starters are also throwing fastball-heavy mixes into lineups handling fastballs at .356 and .353 xwOBA. Santillan's 5.23 ERA keeps the late frames in play. Skenes and his 2.60 xERA are the clear risk, along with PNC's 0.98 run environment and Abbott's recent 1.80 ERA stretch, but the underlying matchup still points over 7.5 at -108.
Final resultWINOver 7.5 -108 · -108 Graded Jun 27, 2026