Key points — 5
- № 01Matthew Liberatore takes the ball for St. Louis with a season-long form score of +90, elite by our model, and his last 5 starts show an improving trend, with a 2.61 ERA across his most recent 2 starts after a 4.09 mark in the older pair. His last-5 FIP of 2.64 reinforces that the recent form is real, not BABIP smoke.
- № 02Nick Lodolo, a left-hander, comes in at the opposite pole, a -10 form score across a small 5-start sample with a 5.20 ERA backed by a 6.20 FIP and 6.62 xERA. The peripherals say the surface line is honest; his last 5 carry a 7.16 K/9, pedestrian for a lefty with his stuff.
- № 03Both offenses are scuffling badly. Cincinnati's 7-day form score sits at -90 with just 3.00 runs per game over that stretch, and they've dropped key bats, Elly De La Cruz on the 10-day IL alongside Ke'Bryan Hayes. St. Louis isn't much better at -38 and 3.67 runs per game.
- № 04Busch Stadium plays as a clean pitcher's park, HR factor of 0.87 overall, with 0.85 for righties suppressing the bulk of both lineups. The counter-signal is wind blowing out to left at 12.8 mph in 82.2°F heat, that's real carry to the pull side for RHB.
- № 05Cincinnati's ninth-inning role is unsettled, Tony Santillan leads in leverage but carries a 6.65 ERA and a brutal 14.73 mark over his last 10. A closer-by-committee with no reliable lockdown arm is a Cardinals-side signal in any late, close game.