Key points — 5
- № 01Michael McGreevy carries a 2.98 ERA across 66.3 innings for St. Louis, but the regression triangle screams caution, his FIP sits at 4.11 and xERA balloons to 5.70, meaning the surface line dramatically overstates how he's actually pitched.
- № 02Rhett Lowder counters with a 5.40 season ERA over just 38.3 innings and 8 starts, and his recent form is alarming, his last 5 starts produced a 6.95 ERA, and the trend is worsening with his newer 2 starts at a catastrophic 22.85 ERA versus an older 2 starts at 2.84.
- № 03Cincinnati's offense is in a deep freeze, a -68 form score with 3.5 runs per game over the last week, and they're without Elly De La Cruz (10-day IL) plus Ke'Bryan Hayes, gutting the heart of the lineup.
- № 04Busch Stadium plays as a clear pitcher's park with a 0.87 HR factor (0.89 for lefties, 0.85 for righties), and the daytime conditions feature overcast clouds with wind crossing right to left at 12.8 mph, a crosswind that doesn't aid carry.
- № 05Bullpen edges favor the home side late, Riley O'Brien anchors an established closer role for St. Louis with a 3.81 ERA, while Cincinnati runs an unsettled ninth-inning approach where the top-leverage arm Tony Santillan carries a 6.56 ERA and a brutal 9.39 mark over his last 10.