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Baseball · MLB ·

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Over 7.5 -102
Line
-102
Bet type
Game
Status
WIN
CLV
—
Key points · 5
  1. № 01Anthony Kay carries a 4.61 ERA across 70.3 innings with a 4.76 FIP, and his 5.64 xERA suggests the contact against him has been even worse than the runs show.
  2. № 02Kay is also trending the wrong way inside his last 5 starts, posting a 6.00 ERA over the most recent two versus 1.64 in the older two.
  3. № 03Gavin Williams sits at a 4.63 xERA against a 3.83 ERA with a -40 form score, and his last two starts have produced a 9.00 ERA compared to 0.60 in the older two.
  4. № 04Williams throws 51.2% fastballs into an opposing lineup running a .350 xwOBA against fastballs across 1656 plate appearances this season.
  5. № 05The home bullpen has thrown 284 pitches over the last three days and closer Seranthony Domínguez is unavailable, with his 4.98 xERA already flagging his 3.86 ERA as inflated.

§ 01The analysis

Both starters come in pointing the wrong direction. Kay's 4.61 ERA is propped up by peripherals that read worse — a 4.76 FIP and a 5.64 xERA — and his last two outings (6.00 ERA) are a clear step back from the 1.64 he posted in the older two starts of the window. Williams looks no better right now. His xERA of 4.63 sits well above his 3.83 ERA, his composite form score is -40, and his last two starts have produced a 9.00 ERA. He also leans on his fastball 51.2% of the time into a lineup running a .350 xwOBA against the pitch. Behind Kay, the home bullpen has logged 284 pitches in three days, Domínguez is out, and the catcher is losing 0.6 called strikes per 100 taken pitches. The counter is real — both offenses have been cold over the last week, the wind is blowing in 11 mph, and umpire Nick Mahrley is calling a wider zone at 33.5%. But the pitching side of the ledger is doing more work here.

§ 02The call

The over at -102 leans on two starters whose peripherals and recent form both point to more damage than their headline ERAs suggest, with Kay's 5.64 xERA and Williams's 9.00 ERA across his last two starts leading the way. The home bullpen behind Kay is short on rest at 284 pitches in three days and missing its closer. Cold bats, wind in, and a wider zone are the legitimate pushback, but the volume of pitching red flags on both sides is the stronger signal. Take over 7.5.

Final resultWINOver 7.5 -102 · -102
Graded Jun 23, 2026

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