All picks

Baseball · MLB ·

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Joey Loperfido OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Line
+190
Bet type
Prop
Status
LOSS
CLV
+0.0%
Key points · 5
  1. № 01Slade Cecconi enters with a 4.60 ERA across 78.3 innings, giving Loperfido a starter he can do damage against if he gets pitches to drive.
  2. № 02Loperfido carries a .682 slugging against right-handed four-seamers across 28 plate appearances on the season, the exact pitch profile that produces extra-base contact.
  3. № 03Daikin Park plays to a 1.10 home run factor for left-handed hitters this season, nudging fly balls toward the seats for a lefty bat.
  4. № 04The recent form cuts the other way — Loperfido has 3 hits in 21 at-bats over his last 10 games, and Cecconi has trimmed his ERA to 2.53 across his most recent two starts.
  5. № 05Loperfido's full-season platoon line of a .79 OPS in 78 plate appearances against right-handed pitching keeps the price at +190 playable even with the cold stretch.

§ 01The analysis

The case for Loperfido over 1.5 total bases starts with the man on the mound. Slade Cecconi is running a 4.60 ERA across 78.3 innings, and the underlying 4.22 FIP and 18.9% strikeout rate suggest a starter hitters can reach. Loperfido fits the matchup. He owns a .682 slugging mark against right-handed four-seamers over 28 plate appearances, and his broader split against righties shows a .79 OPS across 78 plate appearances with a .281 average. Daikin Park adds to it with a 1.10 home run factor for left-handed hitters, a real boost on any ball Loperfido elevates. The counters are honest. Loperfido has 3 hits in 21 at-bats over his last 10 games, and Cecconi has been trending the right way with a 2.53 ERA across his most recent two starts and a 3.02 FIP over his last 5. He also posts a 0.0% barrel rate against right-handed sliders across 17 plate appearances, so the secondary pitch is a real out. At +190 the price reflects that cold stretch.

§ 02The call

Take Loperfido over 1.5 total bases at +190. The matchup math is the anchor — a starter sitting at 4.60 ERA across 78.3 innings, a hitter slugging .682 against right-handed four-seamers across 28 plate appearances, and a park boosting lefty power with a 1.10 home run factor. The recent slump and Cecconi's two strong starts are real and explain why the number pays this much. With a .79 OPS against righties on the season and the venue working in his favor, the lefty bat is the right side at this price.

Final resultLOSSJoey Loperfido OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +190
Graded Jun 21, 2026

Get the daily card before kickoff

Subscribe