№ 01Arias has punished right-handed pitching for a 0.81 OPS across 56 plate appearances this season, and Eury Pérez throws right-handed.
№ 02The split extends to a .226 average against righties, well ahead of his .214 season mark across 84 at-bats.
№ 03If it goes late, Pete Fairbanks and his 6.75 ERA over 28.0 relief innings offer another crack at a hit.
№ 04Arias has 6 hits in 27 at-bats over his last 10 games, keeping the bat live enough to clear a single-hit line.
№ 05His team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against this opponent, so the matchup itself has been kind.
§ 01The analysis
The lean here starts with the platoon. Gabriel Arias is carrying a 0.81 OPS in 56 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, and Eury Pérez throws right-handed. That split also shows up in the average, where Arias sits at .226 versus righties, a step up from his .214 mark on the season across 84 at-bats and a 0.68 overall OPS. Recent form backs the split rather than fighting it, with 6 hits in 27 at-bats over his last 10 games. If the game turns to the pen late, Pete Fairbanks and his 6.75 ERA over 28.0 relief innings have been giving up late runs all year, adding another window for contact. The venue does not complicate matters either, with loanDepot park running a 1.02 run environment, and Arias's team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against this opponent. Pérez's underlying work leaves some room too, a 4.17 xERA and 4.19 FIP across 79.7 innings suggesting the surface has been sharper than the peripherals.
§ 02The call
The risk is Pérez in his current form. He has held right-handed hitters to a .171 average across 146 matchups this season, his strikeout rate sits at 27.7%, and over his last 5 starts he has posted a 2.70 FIP across 27.3 innings with swinging-strike and K rates running ahead of his own baseline. That is the version of Pérez that can erase the platoon edge entirely. The bet is that the season-long split against righties and the bullpen exposure behind him give Arias enough looks to find one hit.
Final resultWINGabriel Arias OVER 0.5 Hits · -107 Graded Jul 11, 2026