№ 01Griffin Conine has ripped 9 hits in 29 at-bats across his last 10 games, a run of form that anchors this over 0.5 hits play.
№ 02Tanner Bibee's 4.78 xERA over 106.3 innings suggests his surface numbers have been flattering the underlying contact he's allowing.
№ 03Conine owns a 0.94 OPS in 73 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, a strong platoon profile heading into this matchup.
№ 04Bibee's last 5 starts show clear fade, with a 5.39 FIP across 29.3 innings compared to a season FIP of 4.81 overall.
№ 05The risk: Bibee has held left-handed batters to a .191 average across 235 matchups this year, which sits against the bet.
§ 01The analysis
The lead here is Conine's bat, which has been humming. Over his last 10 games he has 9 hits in 29 at-bats, and that hot streak lines up against a starter whose peripherals have been steadily eroding. Tanner Bibee is running a 4.78 xERA across 106.3 innings, a 4.81 FIP on the season, and a much uglier 5.39 FIP over his most recent 5 starts spanning 29.3 innings. The trajectory of those last five outings has been worse than his earlier work, and the xERA points to run prevention that's been outpacing his actual contact quality allowed. Conine's platoon fit reinforces the angle. He carries a 0.94 OPS in 73 plate appearances versus right-handers and is hitting .290 against righties this year, sitting on top of a .260 average and 0.84 OPS in 73 at-bats overall. Bibee's 19.0% strikeout rate leaves plenty of balls in play, and loanDepot park sits at a neutral 1.02 run environment for a day game. The honest counter is that Bibee has limited lefties to a .191 average across 235 matchups this season, which is the one number arguing back.
§ 02The call
The write is straightforward: a hitter in a 9-for-29 groove, a .290 mark against right-handers, and a 0.94 OPS in that split, drawing a starter whose 4.78 xERA and 5.39 FIP over his last 29.3 innings say the results are catching up to him. The .191 average Bibee has allowed to lefties across 235 matchups is the real pushback and it deserves respect at -149. Weighing the form, the platoon edge, and Bibee's recent fade against that one counter, Conine over 0.5 hits is the side.
Final resultWINGriffin Conine OVER 0.5 Hits · -149 Graded Jul 11, 2026