№ 01Tanner Bibee carries a 4.78 xERA across 106.3 innings, and the underlying contact quality suggests his run prevention is due to regress.
№ 02Bibee's 4.81 FIP tells the same story on the peripheral side, painting a hittable profile beneath the surface line.
№ 03Over his last 5 starts Bibee has been fading, posting a 5.39 FIP across 29.3 innings with his most recent outings clearly worse.
№ 04Marsee has settled in lately with 8 hits in 35 at-bats over his last 10 games, plus a .267 mark against righty sinkers.
№ 05The counter: Marsee is hitting .200 on the season with a 0.62 OPS, and Bibee has limited lefties to a .191 average.
§ 01The analysis
The lean here starts with Tanner Bibee's 4.78 xERA over 106.3 innings, a number that says he has been outpitching his underlying contact quality and is due to regress. The defense-independent peripheral backs it up with a 4.81 FIP, and the trend inside that season line is uglier than the headline: over his last 5 starts, Bibee has been fading with a 5.39 FIP across 29.3 innings, his most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones. His strikeout rate sits at just 19.0%, so bat-to-ball chances are there. Jakob Marsee has taken advantage of similar looks lately, banking 8 hits in 35 at-bats across his last 10 games. He also hits .267 against right-handed sinkers on the year over 34 plate appearances, and .242 against right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days across 36 plate appearances. LoanDepot park plays close to neutral at a 1.02 run environment, which keeps the matchup edge intact rather than working against the bat.
§ 02The call
The risk is straightforward and worth naming. Marsee is hitting .200 on the season with a 0.62 OPS across 320 at-bats, and he has not solved right-handed pitching either, carrying that same 0.62 OPS in 297 plate appearances with a .212 average. Bibee has also been tough on his side, holding left-handed batters to a .191 average across 235 matchups. Even so, the regression case against Bibee, the fade over his last 5 starts, and Marsee's recent contact tip this toward the over at -134.
Final resultLOSSJakob Marsee OVER 0.5 Hits · -134 Graded Jul 11, 2026