№ 01Pete Fairbanks has been hittable in the closer role, carrying a 6.75 ERA across 28.0 relief innings and offering a late-game window for hits.
№ 02Eury Pérez's underlying line is not shutdown material, with a 4.17 xERA over 79.7 innings and a matching 4.19 FIP on the season.
№ 03Bailey has one usable wrinkle recently, hitting .273 against right-handed sliders over the last 30 days across an 11 plate appearance sample.
№ 04loanDepot park is running a 1.02 run environment this season, a neutral backdrop for the day game rather than a suppressor.
№ 05Bailey's team has won 4 and lost 1 in the last 5 meetings against this opponent, so the matchup has been going their way lately.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Bailey to punch a hit through starts at the back of the opposing bullpen. Pete Fairbanks has surrendered runs at a 6.75 ERA clip across 28.0 relief innings, which is the kind of late-inning exposure that turns a marginal over into a live one. Eury Pérez is the harder assignment, but his season profile has cracks, a 4.17 xERA across 79.7 innings and a 4.19 FIP that both point to a pitcher who can be touched. Bailey also brings one specific weapon to the fight, a .273 batting average against right-handed sliders over the last 30 days in 11 plate appearances. The venue reads neutral with loanDepot park at a 1.02 run environment, and the recent series script favors the pick side, with a 4-1 record in the last 5 meetings against this opponent. The counter is the hitter himself. Bailey is at .181 on the year across 171 at-bats with a 0.51 OPS, and .192 against right-handed pitching in 155 plate appearances at that same 0.51 OPS. Over his last 10 games he owns 5 hits in 27 at-bats.
§ 02The call
The changeup matchup is the ugliest data point, with Bailey at .065 against right-handed changeups over 32 plate appearances, and Pérez has the strikeout stuff to press him, a 27.7% K rate on the season and a 2.70 FIP over his most recent 5 starts across 27.3 innings, with swinging-strike and K rates running ahead of his own baseline. The play accepts that early looks may be quiet and banks on a Fairbanks appearance at 6.75 ERA plus the slider edge to deliver one hit at -107.
Final resultWINPatrick Bailey OVER 0.5 Hits · -107 Graded Jul 11, 2026