№ 01Tyler Phillips carries a 4.81 xERA across 74.0 innings, and his underlying contact quality says the run prevention is due to regress.
№ 02Phillips has walked 34 hitters in those 74.0 innings, a 4.1 BB/9 that sits in the league's bottom tier for command.
№ 03Across his most recent 5 starts, Phillips has posted a 6.21 FIP over 25.7 innings, well clear of his 4.40 season FIP.
№ 04If Bailey doesn't get there against the starter, closer Pete Fairbanks has coughed up a 6.75 ERA across 28.0 relief innings.
№ 05The counter is Bailey himself, a .183 hitter with a 0.51 OPS across 175 at-bats and just 5 hits in his last 30.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Patrick Bailey clearing a base starts with the arm across from him. Tyler Phillips is running a 4.81 xERA over 74.0 innings, and the read is that he's been outpitching his contact quality with regression already knocking. The command backs that up: 34 walks in 74.0 frames works out to a 4.1 BB/9, bottom-tier stuff for finding the zone. The recent form is uglier still, a 6.21 FIP across his last 5 starts covering 25.7 innings, a step down from the 4.40 FIP he's carried on the season. If Bailey doesn't cash off Phillips, the bullpen door opens to Pete Fairbanks and a 6.75 ERA over 28.0 relief innings, so late traffic has been available too. The honest risk is Bailey's bat. He's at .183 with a 0.51 OPS across 175 at-bats.193 against righties across 159 plate appearances at that same 0.51 OPS, and 5 hits in 30 at-bats over his last 10 games. His slugging against right-handed changeups sits at .065 over 32 plate appearances. Phillips has also been sharpening across his last 5 starts.
§ 02The call
The price is being paid for the pitcher, not the hitter. Phillips's 4.81 xERA, a 4.1 BB/9 built on 34 walks in 74.0 innings, and a 6.21 FIP across his last 5 starts of 25.7 innings all point to a starter who has been giving up base traffic, with Fairbanks and his 6.75 ERA over 28.0 innings behind him if the game gets there. Bailey's .183 average and 0.51 OPS across 175 at-bats is the reason there's value on the number at -132.
Final resultWINPatrick Bailey OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -132 Graded Jul 12, 2026