№ 01Brandon Sproat carries a 5.70 ERA across 60.0 innings this season, with a 5.30 FIP backing up the surface number.
№ 02David Fry is hitting .306 with a 0.93 OPS in 40 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season.
№ 03Sproat has walked 30 batters over 60.0 innings, a 4.5 BB/9 that sits in the bottom tier of the league for command.
№ 04American Family Field plays as a 1.10 home run park for right-handed hitters, helping any contact Fry puts in the air.
№ 05Fry has only 4 hits in his last 20 at-bats, so the recent form is a real counterweight to the matchup edge.
§ 01The analysis
This pick leans on the matchup more than the recent box scores. Brandon Sproat brings a 5.70 ERA across 60.0 innings and a 5.30 FIP that says the run prevention isn't a fluke, and his composite form score of -44 reflects swinging-strike and K rates falling below his own baseline. He has also walked 30 hitters over those 60.0 innings, a 4.5 BB/9 that gives Fry plenty of pitches to handle. Fry has hit .306 with a 0.93 OPS in 40 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, and American Family Field's 1.10 home run factor for right-handed hitters adds upside on any aerial contact. The counter is real. Fry has 4 hits in 20 at-bats over his last 10 games, and his xwOBA against right-handed sliders sits at .217. Sproat has also improved within his last 5 starts, posting a 3.27 ERA in his most recent two outings versus 6.23 in the older two. Even with those concerns, the platoon split and command profile point toward at least one base.
§ 02The call
Fry only needs a single, a walk-driven extra base, or one ball into the seats to cash this. The combination of a 5.70 ERA starter who walks 4.5 per 9, a 0.93 OPS against right-handers in 40 plate appearances, and a park that boosts right-handed home runs by 10 percent is the kind of setup that produces total bases more often than not. The cold 10-game stretch is the reason this is priced at -105 instead of deeper. Take the over on 0.5 total bases.
Final resultLOSSDavid Fry OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -105 Graded Jun 18, 2026