№ 01Bauers is hitting .274 with a 0.89 OPS across 212 at-bats this season, giving him a solid baseline against a starter he can punish.
№ 02Against right-handed pitching specifically, Bauers carries a 0.92 OPS over 186 plate appearances and a .277 average, which lines up directly with this matchup.
№ 03Gavin Williams throws 50.8% fastballs, and Bauers owns a .395 xwOBA against fastballs across 135 plate appearances this season.
№ 04Williams's xERA of 4.45 sits well above his 3.32 ERA, and his ERA has jumped to 5.23 in his last two starts versus 1.29 in the older two.
№ 05Bauers also carries a .505 xwOBA against right-handed cutters and an 18.2% barrel rate against right-handed sinkers over the last 30 days.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Bauers reaching a base hit or extra-base knock starts with his season line — .274 with a 0.89 OPS across 212 at-bats — and gets sharper against right-handed pitching, where he's posting a 0.92 OPS in 186 plate appearances and a .277 average. Gavin Williams brings a 3.32 ERA into this start, which is a legitimate counter, but his xERA of 4.45 and FIP of 3.73 both suggest his contact-quality results have outrun the surface number. He's also trending the wrong way, with a 5.23 ERA over his last two starts after a 1.29 mark in the two before that. The pitch-mix fit is what ties it together. Williams leans on fastballs 50.8% of the time, and Bauers is running a .395 xwOBA against fastballs over 135 plate appearances. Add a .505 xwOBA against right-handed cutters and an 18.2% barrel rate against right-handed sinkers in the last 30 days, and the secondary offerings don't offer Williams much relief either. American Family Field plays at a 0.94 run environment, but the lefty home run factor sits at 1.00.
§ 02The call
Take Bauers over 0.5 total bases at -110. The matchup checks the boxes that matter for a single base: a left-handed bat with a 0.92 OPS against righties this season, facing a starter whose fastball-heavy mix runs straight into Bauers's .395 xwOBA on that pitch. Williams's peripherals and recent two-start slide point to a pitcher whose 3.32 ERA is starting to slip, and the park's lefty home run factor of 1.00 keeps the extra-base ceiling intact. One hit is all that's needed.
Final resultLOSSJake Bauers OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -110 Graded Jun 18, 2026