№ 01Alex Jackson is hitting .314 on the season with a 0.77 OPS across 51 at-bats, the anchor for taking his over 0.5 hits at plus money.
№ 02Recent form backs it up with 8 hits in 24 at-bats over his last 10 games, and a .382 average against right-handed pitching this season.
№ 03Jackson also carries a 0.96 OPS in 35 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, which is what Gavin Williams throws.
№ 04Williams sits at a 4.56 xERA across 106.3 innings and a 4.72 FIP over his most recent 5 starts across 24.7 innings.
№ 05Target Field is playing to a 1.06 run environment this season, and Jackson's team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings with this opponent.
§ 01The analysis
The number driving this ticket is Jackson's .314 mark on the season, paired with a 0.77 OPS across 51 at-bats that says the production isn't running on one loud night. His last 10 games line up cleanly with the season line, 8 hits in 24 at-bats, and the platoon split is where the pick really breathes: a .382 average and a 0.96 OPS across 35 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, which is exactly what Gavin Williams brings to the mound. Williams himself isn't sitting on a clean profile. His xERA is 4.56 across 106.3 innings, his FIP over his most recent 5 starts is 4.72 across 24.7 innings, and both his swinging-strike and strikeout rates have drifted below his own baseline. Target Field is playing at a 1.06 run environment this season, and Jackson's team has taken 4 of the last 5 meetings with this opponent. The honest risk is that Williams has been sharpening across his last 5 starts, with the most recent outings clearly cleaner than the earlier ones, and he is still striking out 27.9% of batters on the season. His season-long 3.76 FIP is the number that keeps this from being a walkover.
§ 02The call
At plus money on a hitter carrying a .314 average, a .382 mark against right-handed pitching, and a 0.96 OPS in 35 plate appearances versus righties, with 8 hits in his last 24 at-bats, the price is doing work. Williams's 4.56 xERA across 106.3 innings and 4.72 FIP over his last 5 starts fit the profile, and a 1.06 park factor at Target Field helps rather than hurts. Respect the 27.9% strikeout rate and the recent sharpening, but Jackson over 0.5 hits at +110 is the side.
Final resultLOSSAlex Jackson OVER 0.5 Hits · +110 Graded Jul 9, 2026