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Baseball · MLB ·

Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Colorado Rockies ML +189
Line
+189
Bet type
Game
Status
WIN
CLV
—
Key points · 5
  1. № 01Edward Cabrera carries a 4.86 ERA and a 5.04 FIP across 63.0 innings, and over his last 5 starts his FIP has ballooned to 7.20 across 21.7 innings.
  2. № 02Cabrera's ERA in his two most recent starts is 10.00 versus 7.45 in the older pair of his last 5 — the line is moving the wrong way for the home side.
  3. № 03Our offense holds a 7-day form score of 42 and is averaging 7.3 runs per game, while the opposing offense sits at a -28 form score on 4.3 runs per game.
  4. № 04The opposing bullpen has thrown 271 pitches over the last three days and ranks 30 of 30 in 3-day relief pitch volume, with no established closer behind Hoby Milner.
  5. № 05Ryan Feltner's 5.20 ERA and 4.89 FIP are a real drag on this side, but his 44.2% breaking-pitch usage targets a lineup with a .289 xwOBA against breakers across 830 plate appearances.

§ 01The analysis

This price is built around the opposing starter. Edward Cabrera sits at a 4.86 ERA with a 5.04 FIP on the season, and the last 5 starts have been worse — a 7.20 FIP across 21.7 innings, with a 10.00 ERA in his two most recent outings versus 7.45 in the older pair. Our offense backs that up with a 42 form score and 7.3 runs per game over the last seven days, against a home group running a -28 form score on 4.3 runs per game and missing Ludwing Espinoza, Reginald Preciado, and Tyler Austin. Even if Cabrera escapes early, the bullpen behind him has thrown 271 pitches in three days, ranks 30 of 30 in 3-day relief volume, and has no settled closer — Hoby Milner's 5.16 xERA hints his 3.73 ERA has been kind. The counter is real: Ryan Feltner's 5.20 ERA and 16.7% strikeout rate, plus a shaky bullpen led by Juan Mejia's 6.19 ERA, leave the run-prevention side thin. At +189, the offense and bullpen mismatch covers that gap.

§ 02The call

Take the away side at +189. The lever is Cabrera — a 4.86 ERA and 5.04 FIP season, trending toward a 7.20 FIP and 10.00 ERA in his most recent work, against a lineup scoring 7.3 runs per game over the last week. Even with Feltner's ERA and a tired bullpen as honest concerns, the home group's depleted, overworked relief corps and -28 form score on offense tilt this matchup further than the price suggests. Wrigley's 0.94 run environment is mild context, and the wind out to right does not change the starter edge. Play the away moneyline.

Final resultWINColorado Rockies ML +189 · +189
Graded Jun 17, 2026

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