№ 01Mike Paredes brings a 4.61 xERA across 20.0 innings and a 13.0% strikeout rate, the kind of contact-heavy profile a live road lineup can punish.
№ 02Michael Lorenzen's 7.11 ERA hides a 5.62 xERA, a 1.49-run gap pointing to softer contact than the box scores show.
№ 03Lorenzen's last 5 starts trend up: a 14.14 ERA in the earlier outings has fallen to a 4.35 ERA in the most recent ones.
№ 04Our offense sits 8 of 30 in OPS at 0.74 and has hammered right-handed pitching across 611 plate appearances this season.
№ 05Our bullpen ranks 6 of 30 in 3-day relief pitch volume with only 116 pitches thrown over the last three days, a fresh leverage group.
§ 01The analysis
The headline edge here is the arm we're hitting against. Mike Paredes is running a 4.61 xERA across 20.0 innings with a 13.0% strikeout rate and a 4.65 FIP, a contact profile a right-handed-mashing lineup can move around. Our bats have been productive against righties across 611 plate appearances, the team OPS sits at 0.74 (8 of 30), and the staff they're walking into ranks 27 of 30 in ERA at 4.85. Michael Lorenzen's 7.11 ERA looks ugly, but his 5.62 xERA is 1.49 runs sharper and his last 5 starts have flipped from a 14.14 ERA in the earlier outings to a 4.35 ERA in the most recent ones. Behind him, Jaden Hill's 4.10 xERA undercuts his 5.06 ERA, while the opposing closer Yoendrys Gómez owns a 4.90 xERA against a 3.55 ERA, room for regression the other way. Our pen has thrown only 116 pitches over the last three days, 6 of 30 in 3-day volume. They're also down Ryan Jeffers (D10).
§ 02The call
The risk is real. Lorenzen's full-season 5.62 xERA and 4.64 FIP back up plenty of the damage, his 50.0% fastball usage runs into a lineup carrying a .346 xwOBA against fastballs across 1803 plate appearances, and that lineup has been trending up over 724 plate appearances against righties while averaging 5.4 runs per game the last 7 days. Our own bats have cooled to 3.6 runs per game in that window, and we're missing Brenton Doyle (D10) and Jordan Beck (D10). At +125, the pricing still gives us room to take the away side.
Final resultWINColorado Rockies ML +125 · +125 Graded Jun 28, 2026